Football · Japan J3-League · 21/10, 12:00

Prediction: FC Gifu vs Sagamihara

Team pages: FC Gifu · Sagamihara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

FC Gifu1.62

Sagamihara1.18

1X2

47% 26% 27%

FC Gifu Draw Sagamihara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gifu 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLWLWW

Sagamihara 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLDWWW

Head-to-head

FC Gifu 2–3–1 Sagamihara (6 last)

Sagamihara0-5FC Gifu
FC Gifu1-1Sagamihara
FC Gifu1-2Sagamihara
Sagamihara1-1FC Gifu
Sagamihara1-1FC Gifu
FC Gifu2-1Sagamihara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gifu 1496 · Sagamihara 1537

	FC Gifu	Draw	Sagamihara
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sagamihara (rating 1496 vs 1537).
H2H favours FC Gifu: 2-3-1.
High corners: 14 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gifu	Sagamihara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.1	3.8 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.91▼	Bet365 1.91
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:58 +4’	2.05	3.40	3.00
09:56 +8’	1.91▼	3.50▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gifu 2–3–1 Sagamihara

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/25 Japan J3-League	Sagamihara	0-5 HT 0-2	FC Gifu
06/07/25 Japan J3-League	FC Gifu	1-1 HT 1-0	Sagamihara
14/09/24 Japan J3-League	FC Gifu	1-2 HT 1-1	Sagamihara
06/04/24 Japan J3-League	Sagamihara	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Gifu
16/09/23 Japan J3-League	Sagamihara	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Gifu
18/06/23 Japan J3-League	FC Gifu	2-1 HT 1-1	Sagamihara

Standings · Japan J3-League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	23	13	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	26	14	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	7	2	2	16	7	23
4	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	22	16	23
5	Sagamihara	11	6	3	2	20	12	21
6	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	21	10	19
7	FC Osaka	11	4	5	2	19	12	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	17	15	14
11	Reilac Shiga	11	4	2	5	16	18	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	12	14	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
14	Giravanz Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	15	19	13
15	Matsumoto Y FC	11	2	5	4	10	13	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	11	16	10
17	Thespa Gunma	11	3	1	7	11	20	10
18	Fukushima Utd	11	2	2	7	20	26	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	1	2	8	12	23	5
20	Kochi United	11	1	2	8	4	25	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gifu	Sagamihara
Renofa Yamaguchi	0-2 L	2-2 D
Kamatamare Sanuki	4-3 W	3-2 W
Parceiro Nagano	0-1 L	1-1 D
Zweigen Kanazawa	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sagamihara (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gifu

WDWLLLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
03/10	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
26/09	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	3-2	4-3	4	4	W
20/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
12/09	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
05/09	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
29/08	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
22/08	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
15/08	Kochi United Japan J3-League	3-0	7-0	5	4	W

Sagamihara

WWLDWLDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	11	4	W
09/10	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	2-2	3-2	14	2	W
03/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
26/09	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
20/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
13/09	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	10	5	W
05/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
29/08	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/08	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
15/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	2-0	4-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gifu vs Sagamihara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Gifu win (47%). Probabilities: FC Gifu 47%, draw 26%, Sagamihara 27%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gifu vs Sagamihara?

The model expects 2.8 goals (FC Gifu 1.62 · Sagamihara 1.18), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gifu vs Sagamihara?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.