Football · Japan J3-League · 21/10, 12:00

Prediction: FC Osaka vs Nara Club

Team pages: FC Osaka · Nara Club

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

FC Osaka1.91

Nara Club1.34

1X2

49% 25% 25%

FC Osaka Draw Nara Club

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Osaka 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWWWLDL

Nara Club 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWWWWW

Head-to-head

FC Osaka 4–2–0 Nara Club (6 last)

Nara Club1-4FC Osaka
Nara Club1-3FC Osaka
FC Osaka2-0Nara Club
Nara Club1-1FC Osaka
FC Osaka1-1Nara Club
Nara Club0-1FC Osaka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Osaka 1554 · Nara Club 1536

	FC Osaka	Draw	Nara Club
Our model	50%	24%	26%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Osaka: 4-2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Osaka	Nara Club
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.1	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:59 +4’	1.85	3.40	3.50
11:01 +3’	1.83▼	3.40	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Osaka 4–2–0 Nara Club

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/08/26 Japan FA Cup	Nara Club	1-4 HT 1-1	FC Osaka
06/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Nara Club	1-3 HT 0-2	FC Osaka
06/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	FC Osaka	2-0 HT 0-0	Nara Club
27/09/25 Japan J3-League	Nara Club	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Osaka
30/06/25 Japan J3-League	FC Osaka	1-1 HT 0-1	Nara Club
13/10/24 Japan J3-League	Nara Club	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Osaka

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	23	13	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	26	14	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	7	2	2	16	7	23
4	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	22	16	23
5	Sagamihara	11	6	3	2	20	12	21
6	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	21	10	19
7	FC Osaka	11	4	5	2	19	12	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	17	15	14
11	Reilac Shiga	11	4	2	5	16	18	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	12	14	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
14	Giravanz Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	15	19	13
15	Matsumoto Y FC	11	2	5	4	10	13	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	11	16	10
17	Thespa Gunma	11	3	1	7	11	20	10
18	Fukushima Utd	11	2	2	7	20	26	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	1	2	8	12	23	5
20	Kochi United	11	1	2	8	4	25	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Osaka	Nara Club
Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-3 L	2-0 W
Zweigen Kanazawa	1-1 D	1-0 W
Fukushima Utd	4-1 W	2-2 D
Renofa Yamaguchi	0-0 D	3-1 W
Parceiro Nagano	4-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nara Club (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Osaka

WDDDWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
09/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
03/10	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
26/09	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	4-0	3	2	W
18/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-0	4-1	5	1	W
14/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
05/09	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
30/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
22/08	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-1	2-2	4	1	D
16/08	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-1	4-2	6	2	W

Nara Club

LWDDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
10/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
03/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
26/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	2-0	4-1	5	2	W
19/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	2-0	3-2	7	2	W
12/09	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
06/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	0-0	2-2	2	2	D
22/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
16/08	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	1-1	1-3	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Osaka vs Nara Club?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Osaka win (49%). Probabilities: FC Osaka 49%, draw 25%, Nara Club 25%.

How many goals are expected in FC Osaka vs Nara Club?

The model expects 3.24 goals (FC Osaka 1.91 · Nara Club 1.34), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Osaka vs Nara Club?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.