Football · Japan J3-League · 21/10, 12:00

Prediction: Kagoshima United vs Kochi United

Team pages: Kagoshima United · Kochi United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Kagoshima United2.2

Kochi United1

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Kagoshima United Draw Kochi United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Kagoshima United 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDWLW

Kochi United 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Kagoshima United 1–1–0 Kochi United (2 last)

Kagoshima United4-1Kochi United
Kochi United2-2Kagoshima United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kagoshima United 1539 · Kochi United 1389

	Kagoshima United	Draw	Kochi United
Our model	64%	21%	15%
Market	63%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1539 vs 1389).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kagoshima United	Kochi United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	0.4 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42
X	4.75 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	8.00 → 6.25▼	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:00 +2’	1.28	4.75	8.00
11:01 +3’	1.42▲	4.00▼	6.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kagoshima United 1–1–0 Kochi United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/25 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	4-1 HT 1-0	Kochi United
15/03/25 Japan J3-League	Kochi United	2-2 HT 0-1	Kagoshima United

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	23	13	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	26	14	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	7	2	2	16	7	23
4	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	22	16	23
5	Sagamihara	11	6	3	2	20	12	21
6	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	21	10	19
7	FC Osaka	11	4	5	2	19	12	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	17	15	14
11	Reilac Shiga	11	4	2	5	16	18	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	12	14	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
14	Giravanz Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	15	19	13
15	Matsumoto Y FC	11	2	5	4	10	13	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	11	16	10
17	Thespa Gunma	11	3	1	7	11	20	10
18	Fukushima Utd	11	2	2	7	20	26	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	1	2	8	12	23	5
20	Kochi United	11	1	2	8	4	25	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kagoshima United	Kochi United
Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-1 D	0-2 L
Tochigi SC	3-1 W	0-2 L
Kamatamare Sanuki	4-3 W	2-1 W
FC Gifu	0-0 D	0-7 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Kagoshima United (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kagoshima United

WDWWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	2-0	4-2	5	0	W
11/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
04/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
26/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
19/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
05/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
29/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-1	4-3	3	1	W
22/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
16/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	1-1	3-1	3	4	W

Kochi United

LWLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
10/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-0	1-3	3	1	L
03/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
26/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
19/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
13/09	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	9	1	L
30/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
23/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
15/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-3	0-7	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kagoshima United vs Kochi United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kagoshima United win (63%). Probabilities: Kagoshima United 63%, draw 22%, Kochi United 15%.

How many goals are expected in Kagoshima United vs Kochi United?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Kagoshima United 2.2 · Kochi United 1), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kagoshima United vs Kochi United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.