Football · Japan J3-League · 24/10, 07:00
Prediction: Thespa Gunma vs Kamatamare Sanuki
Team pages: Thespa Gunma · Kamatamare Sanuki
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Thespa Gunma1.71
Kamatamare Sanuki1.35
1X2
Thespa Gunma
Draw
Kamatamare Sanuki
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Thespa Gunma
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Kamatamare Sanuki
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Thespa Gunma
3–1–2
Kamatamare Sanuki
(6 last)
- Kamatamare Sanuki3-2Thespa Gunma
- Thespa Gunma3-3Kamatamare Sanuki
- Kamatamare Sanuki0-1Thespa Gunma
- Thespa Gunma3-1Kamatamare Sanuki
- Thespa Gunma1-2Kamatamare Sanuki
- Kamatamare Sanuki1-2Thespa Gunma
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thespa Gunma 1448 · Kamatamare Sanuki 1404
| Thespa Gunma | Draw | Kamatamare Sanuki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thespa Gunma (rating 1448 vs 1404).
- H2H favours Thespa Gunma: 3-1-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Thespa Gunma | Kamatamare Sanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.7 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 1.8 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thespa Gunma 3–1–2 Kamatamare Sanuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 Japan J3-League | Kamatamare Sanuki | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Thespa Gunma |
| 15/06/25 Japan J3-League | Thespa Gunma | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Kamatamare Sanuki |
| 10/08/19 Japan J3-League | Kamatamare Sanuki | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Thespa Gunma |
| 23/06/19 Japan J3-League | Thespa Gunma | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Kamatamare Sanuki |
| 11/08/17 Japan J2-League | Thespa Gunma | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Kamatamare Sanuki |
| 21/05/17 Japan J2-League | Kamatamare Sanuki | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Thespa Gunma |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 23 |
| 5 | FC Gifu | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 11 | 22 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Osaka | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 12 | 20 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 20 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 17 |
| 11 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 14 |
| 12 | Matsumoto Y FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 13 | Reilac Shiga | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 19 | 14 |
| 14 | Gainare Tottori | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 14 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 13 |
| 16 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 13 |
| 17 | Fukushima Utd | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 27 | 11 |
| 18 | Thespa Gunma | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 10 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 24 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 28 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Thespa Gunma | Kamatamare Sanuki |
|---|---|---|
| FC Ryukyu | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Ehime FC | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Roasso Kumamoto | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Kochi United | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Reilac Shiga | 2-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Thespa Gunma (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thespa Gunma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 17/10 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 03/10 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 26/09 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
Kamatamare Sanuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 09/10 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 04/10 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 26/09 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
2-3 | 3-4 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thespa Gunma vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Thespa Gunma win (45%). Probabilities: Thespa Gunma 45%, draw 26%, Kamatamare Sanuki 29%.
How many goals are expected in Thespa Gunma vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Thespa Gunma 1.71 · Kamatamare Sanuki 1.35), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Thespa Gunma vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.