Football · Japan J3-League · 03/11, 06:00
Prediction: Gainare Tottori vs Sagamihara
Team pages: Gainare Tottori · Sagamihara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Gainare Tottori1.21
Sagamihara1.83
1X2
Gainare Tottori
Draw
Sagamihara
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Gainare Tottori
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Sagamihara
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gainare Tottori
2–1–3
Sagamihara
(6 last)
- Gainare Tottori2-1Sagamihara
- Sagamihara1-0Gainare Tottori
- Sagamihara1-0Gainare Tottori
- Gainare Tottori0-3Sagamihara
- Gainare Tottori0-0Sagamihara
- Sagamihara2-3Gainare Tottori
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gainare Tottori 1441 · Sagamihara 1533
| Gainare Tottori | Draw | Sagamihara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Market | 24% | 25% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sagamihara (rating 1441 vs 1533).
- H2H favours Sagamihara: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gainare Tottori | Sagamihara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.2 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.3 | 4 / 7.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gainare Tottori 2–1–3 Sagamihara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/25 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Sagamihara |
| 06/05/25 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Gainare Tottori |
| 24/11/24 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Gainare Tottori |
| 19/05/24 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Sagamihara |
| 08/10/23 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sagamihara |
| 04/03/23 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Gainare Tottori |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 17 | 30 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 21 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 26 |
| 5 | FC Gifu | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 25 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 25 |
| 7 | Roasso Kumamoto | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | FC Osaka | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 23 |
| 9 | FC Ryukyu | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 23 |
| 10 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 19 | 20 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| 12 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 19 |
| 13 | Matsumoto Y FC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| 15 | Gainare Tottori | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 28 | 15 |
| 16 | Fukushima Utd | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 14 |
| 17 | Reilac Shiga | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 14 |
| 18 | Thespa Gunma | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 13 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 27 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 31 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gainare Tottori | Sagamihara |
|---|---|---|
| Kochi United | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| FC Gifu | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Matsumoto Y FC | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Giravanz Kitakyushu | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sagamihara (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gainare Tottori
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/10 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 11/10 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Sagamihara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 24/10 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 21/10 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 09/10 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 20/09 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gainare Tottori vs Sagamihara?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sagamihara win (51%). Probabilities: Gainare Tottori 24%, draw 25%, Sagamihara 51%.
How many goals are expected in Gainare Tottori vs Sagamihara?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Gainare Tottori 1.21 · Sagamihara 1.83), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gainare Tottori vs Sagamihara?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.