Football · Japan J3-League · 03/11, 06:00

Prediction: Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kagoshima United

Team pages: Renofa Yamaguchi · Kagoshima United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Renofa Yamaguchi1.36

Kagoshima United1.4

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Renofa Yamaguchi Draw Kagoshima United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Renofa Yamaguchi 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWLWL

Kagoshima United 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLWWLD

Head-to-head

Renofa Yamaguchi 3–1–2 Kagoshima United (6 last)

Kagoshima United2-1Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi2-1Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United1-0Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi1-0Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United0-1Renofa Yamaguchi
Kagoshima United0-0Renofa Yamaguchi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Renofa Yamaguchi 1546 · Kagoshima United 1534

	Renofa Yamaguchi	Draw	Kagoshima United
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	36%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Renofa Yamaguchi: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Renofa Yamaguchi	Kagoshima United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.7	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.57
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.36
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.51 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:54 +10’	2.50	3.30	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:42 +21’	2.57	3.36	2.51

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Renofa Yamaguchi 3–1–2 Kagoshima United

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/08/26 Japan FA Cup	Kagoshima United	2-1 HT 2-0	Renofa Yamaguchi
18/04/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Renofa Yamaguchi	2-1 HT 1-1	Kagoshima United
22/02/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Kagoshima United	1-0 HT 0-0	Renofa Yamaguchi
06/07/24 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	1-0 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
28/04/24 Japan J2-League	Kagoshima United	0-1 HT 0-1	Renofa Yamaguchi
20/10/19 Japan J2-League	Kagoshima United	0-0 HT 0-0	Renofa Yamaguchi

Standings · Japan J3-League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	14	9	3	2	28	17	30
2	Ehime FC	14	8	2	4	30	21	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	14	8	2	4	19	11	26
4	Nara Club	14	8	2	4	25	21	26
5	FC Gifu	14	8	1	5	25	13	25
6	Sagamihara	14	7	4	3	24	15	25
7	Roasso Kumamoto	14	6	6	2	16	8	24
8	FC Osaka	14	6	5	3	23	14	23
9	FC Ryukyu	14	7	2	5	21	17	23
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	14	6	2	6	27	19	20
11	Parceiro Nagano	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
12	Giravanz Kitakyushu	14	5	4	5	21	22	19
13	Matsumoto Y FC	14	4	5	5	15	16	17
14	Tochigi SC	14	4	5	5	14	16	17
15	Gainare Tottori	14	4	3	7	15	28	15
16	Fukushima Utd	14	4	2	8	27	32	14
17	Reilac Shiga	14	4	2	8	18	27	14
18	Thespa Gunma	14	4	1	9	12	26	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	14	2	2	10	15	27	8
20	Kochi United	14	1	3	10	6	31	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Renofa Yamaguchi	Kagoshima United
Giravanz Kitakyushu	0-2 L	1-1 D
Matsumoto Y FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Ehime FC	1-2 L	4-2 W
Kochi United	2-0 W	3-1 W
Tochigi SC	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kagoshima United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Renofa Yamaguchi

WWWDWWWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
25/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	0	2	W
21/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
18/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
11/10	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
03/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
26/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-2	2-2	11	2	D
20/09	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
12/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
05/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	2-0	3-0	6	3	W

Kagoshima United

WWWDWLWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
24/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
21/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
17/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	2-0	4-2	5	0	W
11/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
04/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
26/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
19/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
05/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kagoshima United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kagoshima United win (37%). Probabilities: Renofa Yamaguchi 36%, draw 27%, Kagoshima United 37%.

How many goals are expected in Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kagoshima United?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Renofa Yamaguchi 1.36 · Kagoshima United 1.4), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kagoshima United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.