Football · Japan J3-League · 03/11, 06:00

Prediction: Nara Club vs Thespa Gunma

Team pages: Nara Club · Thespa Gunma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Nara Club1.76

Thespa Gunma1.15

1X2

51% 24% 24%

Nara Club Draw Thespa Gunma

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nara Club 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWLLW

Thespa Gunma 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWDLWL

Head-to-head

Nara Club 1–1 Thespa Gunma (2 last)

Thespa Gunma2-0Nara Club
Nara Club3-1Thespa Gunma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nara Club 1551 · Thespa Gunma 1454

	Nara Club	Draw	Thespa Gunma
Our model	51%	26%	24%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nara Club (rating 1551 vs 1454).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nara Club	Thespa Gunma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.1	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.91
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.91 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:02 +1’	1.73	3.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:42 +21’	1.76	3.81	3.91
09:00 +3’	1.75▼	3.91▲	3.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nara Club 1–0–1 Thespa Gunma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/25 Japan J3-League	Thespa Gunma	2-0 HT 2-0	Nara Club
23/03/25 Japan J3-League	Nara Club	3-1 HT 1-1	Thespa Gunma

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	14	9	3	2	28	17	30
2	Ehime FC	14	8	2	4	30	21	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	14	8	2	4	19	11	26
4	Nara Club	14	8	2	4	25	21	26
5	FC Gifu	14	8	1	5	25	13	25
6	Sagamihara	14	7	4	3	24	15	25
7	Roasso Kumamoto	14	6	6	2	16	8	24
8	FC Osaka	14	6	5	3	23	14	23
9	FC Ryukyu	14	7	2	5	21	17	23
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	14	6	2	6	27	19	20
11	Parceiro Nagano	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
12	Giravanz Kitakyushu	14	5	4	5	21	22	19
13	Matsumoto Y FC	14	4	5	5	15	16	17
14	Tochigi SC	14	4	5	5	14	16	17
15	Gainare Tottori	14	4	3	7	15	28	15
16	Fukushima Utd	14	4	2	8	27	32	14
17	Reilac Shiga	14	4	2	8	18	27	14
18	Thespa Gunma	14	4	1	9	12	26	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	14	2	2	10	15	27	8
20	Kochi United	14	1	3	10	6	31	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nara Club	Thespa Gunma
Kamatamare Sanuki	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Ryukyu	1-3 L	2-1 W
Zweigen Kanazawa	1-0 W	0-4 L
Gainare Tottori	3-2 W	1-1 D
Roasso Kumamoto	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nara Club (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nara Club

DWWWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
24/10	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	1-2	1-3	9	3	L
21/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
17/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
10/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
03/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
26/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	2-0	4-1	5	2	W
19/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	2-0	3-2	7	2	W
12/09	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
06/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-2	2-2	5	3	D

Thespa Gunma

LLWLLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
24/10	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
21/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
17/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
10/10	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
03/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-0	1-3	7	1	L
26/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/09	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
12/09	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
05/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-2	1-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nara Club vs Thespa Gunma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nara Club win (51%). Probabilities: Nara Club 51%, draw 24%, Thespa Gunma 24%.

How many goals are expected in Nara Club vs Thespa Gunma?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Nara Club 1.76 · Thespa Gunma 1.15), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nara Club vs Thespa Gunma?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.