Football · Japan J3-League · 24/10, 07:00

Prediction: Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC

Team pages: Sagamihara · Tochigi SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Sagamihara1.51

Tochigi SC1.3

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Sagamihara Draw Tochigi SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sagamihara 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDWWWL

Tochigi SC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLDLLW

Head-to-head

Sagamihara 4–2–0 Tochigi SC (6 last)

Tochigi SC0-2Sagamihara
Sagamihara4-0Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC1-2Sagamihara
Sagamihara1-0Tochigi SC
Sagamihara0-0Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC0-0Sagamihara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sagamihara 1530 · Tochigi SC 1436

	Sagamihara	Draw	Tochigi SC
Our model	41%	27%	31%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sagamihara (rating 1530 vs 1436).
H2H favours Sagamihara: 4-2-0.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sagamihara	Tochigi SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 7.7	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.25

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.23
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25
2	2.75 → 2.88▲	Pinn 3.03 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +7’	2.25	3.30	2.75
15:42 +5’	2.20▼	3.25▼	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:36 +11’	2.23	3.20	3.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagamihara 4–2–0 Tochigi SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Tochigi SC	0-2 HT 0-2	Sagamihara
08/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Sagamihara	4-0 HT 2-0	Tochigi SC
20/07/25 Japan J3-League	Tochigi SC	1-2 HT 1-1	Sagamihara
22/02/25 Japan J3-League	Sagamihara	1-0 HT 1-0	Tochigi SC
09/08/21 Japan J2-League	Sagamihara	0-0 HT 0-0	Tochigi SC
11/04/21 Japan J2-League	Tochigi SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Sagamihara

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	12	9	2	1	26	14	29
2	Ehime FC	12	8	2	2	28	15	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	7	2	3	17	9	23
4	Nara Club	12	7	2	3	22	18	23
5	FC Gifu	12	7	1	4	23	11	22
6	Sagamihara	12	6	3	3	21	14	21
7	FC Osaka	12	5	5	2	21	12	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	5	5	2	13	6	20
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	5	2	5	16	16	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	5	2	5	13	14	17
11	Zweigen Kanazawa	12	4	2	6	18	18	14
12	Matsumoto Y FC	12	3	5	4	12	13	14
13	Reilac Shiga	12	4	2	6	16	19	14
14	Gainare Tottori	12	4	2	6	13	23	14
15	Tochigi SC	12	3	4	5	12	16	13
16	Giravanz Kitakyushu	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
17	Fukushima Utd	12	3	2	7	22	27	11
18	Thespa Gunma	12	3	1	8	11	22	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	2	2	8	15	24	8
20	Kochi United	12	1	2	9	5	28	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sagamihara	Tochigi SC
FC Gifu	1-2 L	1-4 L
Reilac Shiga	2-0 W	1-0 W
Kamatamare Sanuki	3-2 W	0-0 D
Renofa Yamaguchi	2-2 D	0-1 L
Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-2 L	2-2 D
Matsumoto Y FC	3-1 W	1-2 L
Parceiro Nagano	1-1 D	1-1 D
FC Ryukyu	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sagamihara (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sagamihara

WLDWLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
18/10	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	11	4	W
09/10	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	2-2	3-2	14	2	W
03/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
26/09	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
20/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
13/09	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	10	5	W
05/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
29/08	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/08	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	7	4	W

Tochigi SC

DLWDLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
17/10	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
11/10	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/10	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
26/09	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
19/09	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
13/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
05/09	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
22/08	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-2	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sagamihara win (41%). Probabilities: Sagamihara 41%, draw 28%, Tochigi SC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Sagamihara 1.51 · Tochigi SC 1.3), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.