Football · Japan J3-League · 25/10, 06:00

Prediction: Matsumoto Y FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Team pages: Matsumoto Y FC · Renofa Yamaguchi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

Matsumoto Y FC1.09

Renofa Yamaguchi1.17

1X2

33% 29% 37%

Matsumoto Y FC Draw Renofa Yamaguchi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Matsumoto Y FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLDWLWLW

Renofa Yamaguchi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Matsumoto Y FC 1–5–0 Renofa Yamaguchi (6 last)

Matsumoto Y FC1-1Renofa Yamaguchi
Matsumoto Y FC1-1Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi0-0Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC2-1Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi2-2Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC0-0Renofa Yamaguchi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Matsumoto Y FC 1495 · Renofa Yamaguchi 1541

	Matsumoto Y FC	Draw	Renofa Yamaguchi
Our model	32%	31%	36%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Renofa Yamaguchi (rating 1495 vs 1541).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Matsumoto Y FC	Renofa Yamaguchi
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.3	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.20

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +13’	2.63	3.20	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Matsumoto Y FC 1–5–0 Renofa Yamaguchi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/24 Japan J-League Cup	Matsumoto Y FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Renofa Yamaguchi
21/11/21 Japan J2-League	Matsumoto Y FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Renofa Yamaguchi
28/02/21 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	0-0 HT 0-0	Matsumoto Y FC
01/11/20 Japan J2-League	Matsumoto Y FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Renofa Yamaguchi
09/09/20 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	2-2 HT 0-0	Matsumoto Y FC
15/09/18 Japan J2-League	Matsumoto Y FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Renofa Yamaguchi

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	12	9	2	1	26	14	29
2	Ehime FC	12	8	2	2	28	15	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	7	2	3	17	9	23
4	Nara Club	12	7	2	3	22	18	23
5	FC Gifu	12	7	1	4	23	11	22
6	Sagamihara	12	6	3	3	21	14	21
7	FC Osaka	12	5	5	2	21	12	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	5	5	2	13	6	20
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	5	2	5	16	16	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	5	2	5	13	14	17
11	Zweigen Kanazawa	12	4	2	6	18	18	14
12	Matsumoto Y FC	12	3	5	4	12	13	14
13	Reilac Shiga	12	4	2	6	16	19	14
14	Gainare Tottori	12	4	2	6	13	23	14
15	Tochigi SC	12	3	4	5	12	16	13
16	Giravanz Kitakyushu	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
17	Fukushima Utd	12	3	2	7	22	27	11
18	Thespa Gunma	12	3	1	8	11	22	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	2	2	8	15	24	8
20	Kochi United	12	1	2	9	5	28	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Matsumoto Y FC	Renofa Yamaguchi
Thespa Gunma	2-0 W	2-0 W
Gainare Tottori	0-1 L	3-0 W
Tochigi SC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sagamihara	1-3 L	2-2 D
FC Osaka	0-0 D	0-0 D
Ehime FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Renofa Yamaguchi (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Matsumoto Y FC

DDDLDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
18/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-2	1-2	6	4	L
11/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
03/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
26/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
18/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
13/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-2	1-3	11	5	L
05/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
30/08	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
22/08	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	5	3	D

Renofa Yamaguchi

LDWWWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
18/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
11/10	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
03/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
26/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-2	2-2	11	2	D
20/09	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
12/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
05/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
30/08	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
22/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	1-1	1-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Matsumoto Y FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Renofa Yamaguchi win (37%). Probabilities: Matsumoto Y FC 33%, draw 29%, Renofa Yamaguchi 37%.

How many goals are expected in Matsumoto Y FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

The model expects 2.27 goals (Matsumoto Y FC 1.09 · Renofa Yamaguchi 1.17), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Matsumoto Y FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.