Football · Japan J3-League · 24/10, 07:00

Prediction: FC Osaka vs Kagoshima United

Team pages: FC Osaka · Kagoshima United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

FC Osaka1.19

Kagoshima United1.52

1X2

29% 27% 44%

FC Osaka Draw Kagoshima United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Osaka 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWLDLW

Kagoshima United 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDWLWW

Head-to-head

FC Osaka 1–3 Kagoshima United (4 last)

Kagoshima United2-1FC Osaka
FC Osaka3-0Kagoshima United
FC Osaka2-3Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United2-1FC Osaka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Osaka 1534 · Kagoshima United 1536

	FC Osaka	Draw	Kagoshima United
Our model	29%	28%	44%
Market	29%	27%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kagoshima United: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Osaka	Kagoshima United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.30

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.18 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +17’	3.10	3.30	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:36 +11’	3.08	3.24	2.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Osaka 1–0–3 Kagoshima United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/07/25 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Osaka
31/05/25 Japan J3-League	FC Osaka	3-0 HT 2-0	Kagoshima United
05/10/23 Japan J3-League	FC Osaka	2-3 HT 0-1	Kagoshima United
04/03/23 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Osaka

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	12	9	2	1	26	14	29
2	Ehime FC	12	8	2	2	28	15	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	7	2	3	17	9	23
4	Nara Club	12	7	2	3	22	18	23
5	FC Gifu	12	7	1	4	23	11	22
6	Sagamihara	12	6	3	3	21	14	21
7	FC Osaka	12	5	5	2	21	12	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	5	5	2	13	6	20
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	5	2	5	16	16	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	5	2	5	13	14	17
11	Zweigen Kanazawa	12	4	2	6	18	18	14
12	Matsumoto Y FC	12	3	5	4	12	13	14
13	Reilac Shiga	12	4	2	6	16	19	14
14	Gainare Tottori	12	4	2	6	13	23	14
15	Tochigi SC	12	3	4	5	12	16	13
16	Giravanz Kitakyushu	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
17	Fukushima Utd	12	3	2	7	22	27	11
18	Thespa Gunma	12	3	1	8	11	22	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	2	2	8	15	24	8
20	Kochi United	12	1	2	9	5	28	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Osaka	Kagoshima United
Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-3 L	1-1 D
Kochi United	4-0 W	3-1 W
Fukushima Utd	4-1 W	3-2 W
Ehime FC	2-1 W	4-2 W
Matsumoto Y FC	0-0 D	0-1 L
FC Ryukyu	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Osaka

DDDWWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
17/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
09/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
03/10	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
26/09	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	4-0	3	2	W
18/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-0	4-1	5	1	W
14/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
05/09	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
30/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
22/08	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-1	2-2	4	1	D

Kagoshima United

DWWWWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
17/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	2-0	4-2	5	0	W
11/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
04/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
26/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
19/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
05/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
29/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-1	4-3	3	1	W
22/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Osaka vs Kagoshima United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kagoshima United win (44%). Probabilities: FC Osaka 29%, draw 27%, Kagoshima United 44%.

How many goals are expected in FC Osaka vs Kagoshima United?

The model expects 2.71 goals (FC Osaka 1.19 · Kagoshima United 1.52), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Osaka vs Kagoshima United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.