Football · Japan J3-League · 25/10, 08:00

Prediction: Ehime FC vs Fukushima Utd

Team pages: Ehime FC · Fukushima Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

Ehime FC2.48

Fukushima Utd1.49

1X2

58% 22% 21%

Ehime FC Draw Fukushima Utd

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ehime FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDWWLW

Fukushima Utd 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWLDLW

Head-to-head

Ehime FC 1–1–2 Fukushima Utd (4 last)

Fukushima Utd4-1Ehime FC
Ehime FC0-1Fukushima Utd
Fukushima Utd0-3Ehime FC
Ehime FC0-0Fukushima Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ehime FC 1544 · Fukushima Utd 1469

	Ehime FC	Draw	Fukushima Utd
Our model	59%	20%	21%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ehime FC (rating 1544 vs 1469).
H2H favours Fukushima Utd: 2-1-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ehime FC	Fukushima Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	1.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.90

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +10’	1.57	3.90	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ehime FC 1–1–2 Fukushima Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/11/23 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	4-1 HT 3-0	Ehime FC
27/05/23 Japan J3-League	Ehime FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Fukushima Utd
20/11/22 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	0-3 HT 0-2	Ehime FC
29/04/22 Japan J3-League	Ehime FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Fukushima Utd

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	12	9	2	1	26	14	29
2	Ehime FC	12	8	2	2	28	15	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	7	2	3	17	9	23
4	Nara Club	12	7	2	3	22	18	23
5	FC Gifu	12	7	1	4	23	11	22
6	Sagamihara	12	6	3	3	21	14	21
7	FC Osaka	12	5	5	2	21	12	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	5	5	2	13	6	20
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	5	2	5	16	16	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	5	2	5	13	14	17
11	Zweigen Kanazawa	12	4	2	6	18	18	14
12	Matsumoto Y FC	12	3	5	4	12	13	14
13	Reilac Shiga	12	4	2	6	16	19	14
14	Gainare Tottori	12	4	2	6	13	23	14
15	Tochigi SC	12	3	4	5	12	16	13
16	Giravanz Kitakyushu	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
17	Fukushima Utd	12	3	2	7	22	27	11
18	Thespa Gunma	12	3	1	8	11	22	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	2	2	8	15	24	8
20	Kochi United	12	1	2	9	5	28	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ehime FC	Fukushima Utd
Kagoshima United	2-4 L	2-3 L
Roasso Kumamoto	2-0 W	1-2 L
Thespa Gunma	3-1 W	3-1 W
FC Osaka	1-2 L	1-4 L
Giravanz Kitakyushu	4-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ehime FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ehime FC

DWWLWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
17/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-2	2-4	4	0	L
11/10	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
03/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	0-1	3-1	9	1	W
26/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
19/09	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
14/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
05/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	2-1	4-2	8	4	W
30/08	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
22/08	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	5	3	D

Fukushima Utd

LDWLLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
17/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
10/10	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
04/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-2	2-3	8	2	L
26/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-1	4-3	6	1	W
18/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
12/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
05/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
29/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-0	2-2	6	2	D
22/08	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	1-2	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ehime FC vs Fukushima Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ehime FC win (58%). Probabilities: Ehime FC 58%, draw 22%, Fukushima Utd 21%.

How many goals are expected in Ehime FC vs Fukushima Utd?

The model expects 3.98 goals (Ehime FC 2.48 · Fukushima Utd 1.49), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ehime FC vs Fukushima Utd?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.