Football · Japan J3-League · 25/10, 06:00

Prediction: Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano

Team pages: Giravanz Kitakyushu · Parceiro Nagano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Giravanz Kitakyushu1.38

Parceiro Nagano1.26

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Giravanz Kitakyushu Draw Parceiro Nagano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Giravanz Kitakyushu 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWDWLWL

Parceiro Nagano 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLLWWL

Head-to-head

Giravanz Kitakyushu 1–4–1 Parceiro Nagano (6 last)

Parceiro Nagano1-1Giravanz Kitakyushu
Giravanz Kitakyushu2-0Parceiro Nagano
Giravanz Kitakyushu1-1Parceiro Nagano
Parceiro Nagano3-2Giravanz Kitakyushu
Parceiro Nagano2-2Giravanz Kitakyushu
Giravanz Kitakyushu1-1Parceiro Nagano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Giravanz Kitakyushu 1470 · Parceiro Nagano 1490

	Giravanz Kitakyushu	Draw	Parceiro Nagano
Our model	39%	29%	33%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Giravanz Kitakyushu	Parceiro Nagano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.25

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +49’	2.30	3.25	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Giravanz Kitakyushu 1–4–1 Parceiro Nagano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/25 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	1-1 HT 0-1	Giravanz Kitakyushu
22/02/25 Japan J3-League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	2-0 HT 0-0	Parceiro Nagano
16/11/24 Japan J3-League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-1 HT 0-0	Parceiro Nagano
27/04/24 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	3-2 HT 3-1	Giravanz Kitakyushu
19/11/23 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	2-2 HT 2-1	Giravanz Kitakyushu
24/06/23 Japan J3-League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-1 HT 1-0	Parceiro Nagano

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	12	9	2	1	26	14	29
2	Ehime FC	12	8	2	2	28	15	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	7	2	3	17	9	23
4	Nara Club	12	7	2	3	22	18	23
5	FC Gifu	12	7	1	4	23	11	22
6	Sagamihara	12	6	3	3	21	14	21
7	FC Osaka	12	5	5	2	21	12	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	5	5	2	13	6	20
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	5	2	5	16	16	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	5	2	5	13	14	17
11	Zweigen Kanazawa	12	4	2	6	18	18	14
12	Matsumoto Y FC	12	3	5	4	12	13	14
13	Reilac Shiga	12	4	2	6	16	19	14
14	Gainare Tottori	12	4	2	6	13	23	14
15	Tochigi SC	12	3	4	5	12	16	13
16	Giravanz Kitakyushu	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
17	Fukushima Utd	12	3	2	7	22	27	11
18	Thespa Gunma	12	3	1	8	11	22	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	2	2	8	15	24	8
20	Kochi United	12	1	2	9	5	28	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Giravanz Kitakyushu	Parceiro Nagano
Fukushima Utd	1-2 L	3-4 L
Nara Club	0-2 L	0-1 L
Kochi United	2-0 W	3-1 W
Sagamihara	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Ryukyu	0-3 L	0-1 L
Matsumoto Y FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Parceiro Nagano (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Giravanz Kitakyushu

DLLLWDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	0-0	1-2	0	3	L
17/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-0	3-1	3	2	W
10/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
03/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
26/09	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	9	1	D
20/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
12/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	1-2	2-4	11	1	L
09/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
05/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
30/08	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D

Parceiro Nagano

WLDDWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
18/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
10/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	3-1	4	1	W
03/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
26/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-1	3-4	5	1	L
20/09	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
05/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
30/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
22/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Giravanz Kitakyushu win (39%). Probabilities: Giravanz Kitakyushu 39%, draw 28%, Parceiro Nagano 33%.

How many goals are expected in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Giravanz Kitakyushu 1.38 · Parceiro Nagano 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.