Football · Japan J3-League · 07/11, 06:00

Prediction: Fukushima Utd vs FC Ryukyu

Team pages: Fukushima Utd · FC Ryukyu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Fukushima Utd1.74

FC Ryukyu1.69

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Fukushima Utd Draw FC Ryukyu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Fukushima Utd 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLWWLD

FC Ryukyu 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Fukushima Utd 2–3–1 FC Ryukyu (6 last)

Fukushima Utd1-1FC Ryukyu
Fukushima Utd3-3FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu0-1Fukushima Utd
Fukushima Utd0-1FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu1-2Fukushima Utd
Fukushima Utd0-0FC Ryukyu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fukushima Utd 1461 · FC Ryukyu 1511

	Fukushima Utd	Draw	FC Ryukyu
Our model	39%	24%	37%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ryukyu (rating 1461 vs 1511).
H2H favours Fukushima Utd: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fukushima Utd	FC Ryukyu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.5	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:07 +4’	2.30	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fukushima Utd 2–3–1 FC Ryukyu

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Fukushima Utd	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Ryukyu
20/07/25 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	3-3 HT 2-1	FC Ryukyu
01/03/25 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	0-1 HT 0-1	Fukushima Utd
17/08/24 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Ryukyu
16/06/24 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	1-2 HT 0-1	Fukushima Utd
02/12/23 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Ryukyu

Standings · Japan J3-League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	15	9	4	2	29	18	31
2	Nara Club	15	9	2	4	28	21	29
3	FC Gifu	15	9	1	5	28	15	28
4	Sagamihara	15	8	4	3	25	15	28
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	15	8	3	4	20	12	27
6	FC Osaka	15	7	5	3	25	15	26
7	Ehime FC	15	8	2	5	30	25	26
8	Roasso Kumamoto	15	6	6	3	17	10	24
9	FC Ryukyu	15	7	2	6	23	20	23
10	Parceiro Nagano	15	7	2	6	22	20	23
11	Zweigen Kanazawa	15	6	2	7	27	21	20
12	Giravanz Kitakyushu	15	5	4	6	21	23	19
13	Tochigi SC	15	4	6	5	14	16	18
14	Matsumoto Y FC	15	4	5	6	15	17	17
15	Reilac Shiga	15	5	2	8	19	27	17
16	Fukushima Utd	15	4	3	8	27	32	15
17	Gainare Tottori	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
18	Thespa Gunma	15	4	1	10	12	29	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	15	3	2	10	16	27	11
20	Kochi United	15	2	3	10	10	31	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fukushima Utd	FC Ryukyu
Tochigi SC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Ehime FC	4-2 W	1-1 D
FC Gifu	0-1 L	2-3 L
Reilac Shiga	2-2 D	0-3 L
Parceiro Nagano	4-3 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fukushima Utd (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fukushima Utd

LLWLDLWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
31/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
25/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	2-1	4-2	6	1	W
21/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
17/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
10/10	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
04/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-2	2-3	8	2	L
26/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-1	4-3	6	1	W
18/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
12/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	4	1	L

FC Ryukyu

WLDLLWWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	2-1	2-3	4	3	L
31/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	1-0	5-2	3	4	W
24/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
21/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	11	1	W
17/10	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
10/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	1	0	L
03/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
26/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
20/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
13/09	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fukushima Utd vs FC Ryukyu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fukushima Utd win (39%). Probabilities: Fukushima Utd 39%, draw 25%, FC Ryukyu 36%.

How many goals are expected in Fukushima Utd vs FC Ryukyu?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Fukushima Utd 1.74 · FC Ryukyu 1.69), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fukushima Utd vs FC Ryukyu?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.