Football · Japan J3-League · 15/11, 08:00

Prediction: FC Ryukyu vs Kochi United

Team pages: FC Ryukyu · Kochi United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

FC Ryukyu1.79

Kochi United1.33

1X2

47% 25% 27%

FC Ryukyu Draw Kochi United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Ryukyu 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Kochi United 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Ryukyu 1–1–0 Kochi United (2 last)

FC Ryukyu2-1Kochi United
Kochi United1-1FC Ryukyu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Ryukyu 1486 · Kochi United 1422

	FC Ryukyu	Draw	Kochi United
Our model	47%	25%	27%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ryukyu (rating 1486 vs 1422).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Ryukyu	Kochi United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	0.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:28 +45’	1.91	3.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ryukyu 1–1–0 Kochi United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/10/25 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	2-1 HT 1-0	Kochi United
30/03/25 Japan J3-League	Kochi United	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Ryukyu

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nara Club	16	10	2	4	33	21	32
2	FC Gifu	16	10	1	5	29	15	31
3	Sagamihara	16	9	4	3	26	15	31
4	Kagoshima United	16	9	4	3	29	19	31
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	16	9	3	4	22	13	30
6	FC Osaka	16	8	5	3	27	16	29
7	Ehime FC	16	9	2	5	31	25	29
8	Roasso Kumamoto	16	6	6	4	18	12	24
9	Zweigen Kanazawa	16	7	2	7	28	21	23
10	Parceiro Nagano	16	7	2	7	22	21	23
11	FC Ryukyu	16	7	2	7	24	24	23
12	Tochigi SC	16	5	6	5	15	16	21
13	Giravanz Kitakyushu	16	5	4	7	21	24	19
14	Fukushima Utd	16	5	3	8	31	33	18
15	Matsumoto Y FC	16	4	5	7	15	18	17
16	Reilac Shiga	16	5	2	9	19	28	17
17	Gainare Tottori	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Kamatamare Sanuki	16	4	2	10	17	27	14
19	Thespa Gunma	16	4	1	11	13	31	13
20	Kochi United	16	2	3	11	10	36	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Ryukyu	Kochi United
Gainare Tottori	5-2 W	0-0 D
Nara Club	3-1 W	0-5 L
Parceiro Nagano	1-0 W	1-3 L
Thespa Gunma	1-2 L	0-1 L
Ehime FC	1-1 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ryukyu (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Ryukyu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-1	1-4	4	0	L
03/11	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	2-1	2-3	4	3	L
31/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	1-0	5-2	3	4	W
24/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
21/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	11	1	W
17/10	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
10/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	1	0	L
03/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
26/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
20/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-1	0-3	4	1	L

Kochi United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-2	0-5	7	0	L
03/11	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-0	4-0	5	1	W
31/10	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-3	1-3	2	4	L
25/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
21/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
18/10	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
10/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-0	1-3	3	1	L
03/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
26/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
19/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Ryukyu vs Kochi United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Ryukyu win (47%). Probabilities: FC Ryukyu 47%, draw 25%, Kochi United 27%.

How many goals are expected in FC Ryukyu vs Kochi United?

The model expects 3.12 goals (FC Ryukyu 1.79 · Kochi United 1.33), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Ryukyu vs Kochi United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.