Football · Japan J3-League · 15/11, 06:00

Prediction: Kamatamare Sanuki vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Team pages: Kamatamare Sanuki · Renofa Yamaguchi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Kamatamare Sanuki1.06

Renofa Yamaguchi1.66

1X2

23% 26% 51%

Kamatamare Sanuki Draw Renofa Yamaguchi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Kamatamare Sanuki 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLLWW

Renofa Yamaguchi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWLDW

Head-to-head

Kamatamare Sanuki 0–1–5 Renofa Yamaguchi (6 last)

Kamatamare Sanuki0-0Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi1-0Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki1-3Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi1-0Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki0-2Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi1-0Kamatamare Sanuki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kamatamare Sanuki 1467 · Renofa Yamaguchi 1549

	Kamatamare Sanuki	Draw	Renofa Yamaguchi
Our model	23%	27%	50%
Market	24%	25%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Renofa Yamaguchi (rating 1467 vs 1549).
H2H favours Renofa Yamaguchi: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kamatamare Sanuki	Renofa Yamaguchi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.50

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +12’	3.75	3.50	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kamatamare Sanuki 0–1–5 Renofa Yamaguchi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/10/18 Japan J2-League	Kamatamare Sanuki	0-0 HT 0-0	Renofa Yamaguchi
27/05/18 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	1-0 HT 1-0	Kamatamare Sanuki
15/07/17 Japan J2-League	Kamatamare Sanuki	1-3 HT 1-2	Renofa Yamaguchi
26/03/17 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	1-0 HT 1-0	Kamatamare Sanuki
16/07/16 Japan J2-League	Kamatamare Sanuki	0-2 HT 0-1	Renofa Yamaguchi
03/04/16 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	1-0 HT 0-0	Kamatamare Sanuki

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nara Club	16	10	2	4	33	21	32
2	FC Gifu	16	10	1	5	29	15	31
3	Sagamihara	16	9	4	3	26	15	31
4	Kagoshima United	16	9	4	3	29	19	31
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	16	9	3	4	22	13	30
6	FC Osaka	16	8	5	3	27	16	29
7	Ehime FC	16	9	2	5	31	25	29
8	Roasso Kumamoto	16	6	6	4	18	12	24
9	Zweigen Kanazawa	16	7	2	7	28	21	23
10	Parceiro Nagano	16	7	2	7	22	21	23
11	FC Ryukyu	16	7	2	7	24	24	23
12	Tochigi SC	16	5	6	5	15	16	21
13	Giravanz Kitakyushu	16	5	4	7	21	24	19
14	Fukushima Utd	16	5	3	8	31	33	18
15	Matsumoto Y FC	16	4	5	7	15	18	17
16	Reilac Shiga	16	5	2	9	19	28	17
17	Gainare Tottori	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Kamatamare Sanuki	16	4	2	10	17	27	14
19	Thespa Gunma	16	4	1	11	13	31	13
20	Kochi United	16	2	3	11	10	36	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kamatamare Sanuki	Renofa Yamaguchi
Matsumoto Y FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Zweigen Kanazawa	3-1 W	2-1 W
Roasso Kumamoto	0-3 L	2-1 W
Sagamihara	2-3 L	2-2 D
Tochigi SC	0-0 D	1-0 W
FC Gifu	3-4 L	2-0 W
Ehime FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Renofa Yamaguchi (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kamatamare Sanuki

LLDLLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/11	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
31/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
24/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
21/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	0	2	W
18/10	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
09/10	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	2-2	2-3	3	2	L
04/10	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/09	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	2-3	3-4	14	4	L
19/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	0	3	L

Renofa Yamaguchi

WDWWWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-1	2-1	1	1	W
03/11	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
31/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
25/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	0	2	W
21/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
18/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
11/10	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
03/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
26/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-2	2-2	11	2	D
20/09	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kamatamare Sanuki vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Renofa Yamaguchi win (51%). Probabilities: Kamatamare Sanuki 23%, draw 26%, Renofa Yamaguchi 51%.

How many goals are expected in Kamatamare Sanuki vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Kamatamare Sanuki 1.06 · Renofa Yamaguchi 1.66), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kamatamare Sanuki vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.