Football · Japan J3-League · 15/11, 10:00
Prediction: Reilac Shiga vs FC Osaka
Team pages: Reilac Shiga · FC Osaka
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Reilac Shiga1.01
FC Osaka1.49
1X2
Reilac Shiga
Draw
FC Osaka
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Reilac Shiga
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
FC Osaka
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Reilac Shiga
1–2–3
FC Osaka
(6 last)
- FC Osaka0-0Reilac Shiga
- FC Osaka1-1Reilac Shiga
- Reilac Shiga0-4FC Osaka
- FC Osaka1-0Reilac Shiga
- Reilac Shiga2-1FC Osaka
- Reilac Shiga0-2FC Osaka
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Reilac Shiga 1447 · FC Osaka 1541
| Reilac Shiga | Draw | FC Osaka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 26% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Osaka (rating 1447 vs 1541).
- H2H favours FC Osaka: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Reilac Shiga | FC Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Reilac Shiga 1–2–3 FC Osaka
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | FC Osaka | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Reilac Shiga |
| 20/11/22 Japan Football League | FC Osaka | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Reilac Shiga |
| 26/06/22 Japan Football League | Reilac Shiga | 0-4 HT 0-3 | FC Osaka |
| 14/09/19 Japan Football League | FC Osaka | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Reilac Shiga |
| 15/06/19 Japan Football League | Reilac Shiga | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Osaka |
| 25/05/19 Japan FA Cup | Reilac Shiga | 0-2 HT 0-0 | FC Osaka |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nara Club | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 21 | 32 |
| 2 | FC Gifu | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 15 | 31 |
| 3 | Sagamihara | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 15 | 31 |
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 31 |
| 5 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 30 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 29 |
| 7 | Ehime FC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 29 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 12 | 24 |
| 9 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 21 | 23 |
| 10 | Parceiro Nagano | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 23 |
| 11 | FC Ryukyu | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 23 |
| 12 | Tochigi SC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 21 |
| 13 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 19 |
| 14 | Fukushima Utd | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 33 | 18 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Y FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 16 | Reilac Shiga | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 17 |
| 17 | Gainare Tottori | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 30 | 15 |
| 18 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 14 |
| 19 | Thespa Gunma | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 31 | 13 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 36 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Reilac Shiga | FC Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Giravanz Kitakyushu | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Zweigen Kanazawa | 1-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Sagamihara | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Fukushima Utd | 2-2 D | 4-1 W |
| Roasso Kumamoto | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Nara Club | 1-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Osaka (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Reilac Shiga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/11 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 31/10 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/10 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/10 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 02/10 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
FC Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 04/11 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 31/10 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/10 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 09/10 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 03/10 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Reilac Shiga vs FC Osaka?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Osaka win (48%). Probabilities: Reilac Shiga 25%, draw 27%, FC Osaka 48%.
How many goals are expected in Reilac Shiga vs FC Osaka?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Reilac Shiga 1.01 · FC Osaka 1.49), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Reilac Shiga vs FC Osaka?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.