Football · Japan J3-League · 07/11, 06:00

Prediction: Thespa Gunma vs FC Osaka

Team pages: Thespa Gunma · FC Osaka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Thespa Gunma1.03

FC Osaka1.61

1X2

24% 26% 51%

Thespa Gunma Draw FC Osaka

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Thespa Gunma 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDLWLL

FC Osaka 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLWWLW

Head-to-head

Thespa Gunma 1–1 FC Osaka (2 last)

Thespa Gunma2-0FC Osaka
FC Osaka4-3Thespa Gunma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Thespa Gunma 1459 · FC Osaka 1535

	Thespa Gunma	Draw	FC Osaka
Our model	23%	27%	50%
Market	24%	25%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Osaka (rating 1459 vs 1535).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Thespa Gunma	FC Osaka
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.7	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.60

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:01 +9’	3.70	3.60	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Thespa Gunma 1–0–1 FC Osaka

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/25 Japan J3-League	Thespa Gunma	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Osaka
18/04/25 Japan J3-League	FC Osaka	4-3 HT 0-2	Thespa Gunma

Standings · Japan J3-League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	15	9	4	2	29	18	31
2	Nara Club	15	9	2	4	28	21	29
3	FC Gifu	15	9	1	5	28	15	28
4	Sagamihara	15	8	4	3	25	15	28
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	15	8	3	4	20	12	27
6	FC Osaka	15	7	5	3	25	15	26
7	Ehime FC	15	8	2	5	30	25	26
8	Roasso Kumamoto	15	6	6	3	17	10	24
9	FC Ryukyu	15	7	2	6	23	20	23
10	Parceiro Nagano	15	7	2	6	22	20	23
11	Zweigen Kanazawa	15	6	2	7	27	21	20
12	Giravanz Kitakyushu	15	5	4	6	21	23	19
13	Tochigi SC	15	4	6	5	14	16	18
14	Matsumoto Y FC	15	4	5	6	15	17	17
15	Reilac Shiga	15	5	2	8	19	27	17
16	Fukushima Utd	15	4	3	8	27	32	15
17	Gainare Tottori	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
18	Thespa Gunma	15	4	1	10	12	29	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	15	3	2	10	16	27	11
20	Kochi United	15	2	3	10	10	31	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Thespa Gunma	FC Osaka
Nara Club	0-3 L	2-0 W
Zweigen Kanazawa	0-4 L	1-1 D
Ehime FC	1-3 L	2-1 W
Roasso Kumamoto	0-1 L	2-1 W
Kochi United	1-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Osaka (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Thespa Gunma

LWLLWDLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
31/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
24/10	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
21/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
17/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
10/10	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
03/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-0	1-3	7	1	L
26/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/09	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
12/09	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	3	2	L

FC Osaka

WWWLDLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	4	0	W
31/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
24/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
21/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
17/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
09/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
03/10	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
26/09	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	4-0	3	2	W
18/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-0	4-1	5	1	W
14/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Thespa Gunma vs FC Osaka?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Osaka win (51%). Probabilities: Thespa Gunma 24%, draw 26%, FC Osaka 51%.

How many goals are expected in Thespa Gunma vs FC Osaka?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Thespa Gunma 1.03 · FC Osaka 1.61), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Thespa Gunma vs FC Osaka?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.