Football · Japan J3-League · 08/11, 06:00

Prediction: Sagamihara vs Kagoshima United

Team pages: Sagamihara · Kagoshima United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Sagamihara1.26

Kagoshima United1.68

1X2

28% 26% 46%

Sagamihara Draw Kagoshima United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sagamihara 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWLDWW

Kagoshima United 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWWLDD

Head-to-head

Sagamihara 1–5 Kagoshima United (6 last)

Kagoshima United3-0Sagamihara
Sagamihara0-2Kagoshima United
Sagamihara0-3Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United2-1Sagamihara
Sagamihara0-1Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United0-1Sagamihara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sagamihara 1550 · Kagoshima United 1523

	Sagamihara	Draw	Kagoshima United
Our model	28%	26%	46%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kagoshima United: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sagamihara	Kagoshima United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.9	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.48 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.00 → 1.95▼	Pinn 1.98

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +12’	3.10	3.40	2.00
01:31 +3’	3.20▲	3.30▼	2.00
06:41 +4’	3.40▲	3.40▲	1.85▼
08:20 +19’	3.25▼	3.40	1.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:11 +34’	3.48	3.40	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagamihara 1–0–5 Kagoshima United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/25 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	3-0 HT 1-0	Sagamihara
01/03/25 Japan J3-League	Sagamihara	0-2 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
09/09/23 Japan J3-League	Sagamihara	0-3 HT 0-2	Kagoshima United
26/03/23 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	2-1 HT 1-0	Sagamihara
20/08/22 Japan J3-League	Sagamihara	0-1 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
17/07/22 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	0-1 HT 0-0	Sagamihara

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	15	9	4	2	29	18	31
2	Nara Club	15	9	2	4	28	21	29
3	FC Gifu	15	9	1	5	28	15	28
4	Sagamihara	15	8	4	3	25	15	28
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	15	8	3	4	20	12	27
6	FC Osaka	15	7	5	3	25	15	26
7	Ehime FC	15	8	2	5	30	25	26
8	Roasso Kumamoto	15	6	6	3	17	10	24
9	FC Ryukyu	15	7	2	6	23	20	23
10	Parceiro Nagano	15	7	2	6	22	20	23
11	Zweigen Kanazawa	15	6	2	7	27	21	20
12	Giravanz Kitakyushu	15	5	4	6	21	23	19
13	Tochigi SC	15	4	6	5	14	16	18
14	Matsumoto Y FC	15	4	5	6	15	17	17
15	Reilac Shiga	15	5	2	8	19	27	17
16	Fukushima Utd	15	4	3	8	27	32	15
17	Gainare Tottori	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
18	Thespa Gunma	15	4	1	10	12	29	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	15	3	2	10	16	27	11
20	Kochi United	15	2	3	10	10	31	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sagamihara	Kagoshima United
Kochi United	3-1 W	3-1 W
Tochigi SC	0-0 D	3-1 W
Reilac Shiga	2-0 W	2-1 W
FC Osaka	1-0 W	1-2 L
Renofa Yamaguchi	2-2 D	1-1 D
Giravanz Kitakyushu	1-2 L	1-1 D
Matsumoto Y FC	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sagamihara (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sagamihara

WLDWWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
31/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	3-1	3-1	6	4	W
24/10	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
21/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
18/10	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	11	4	W
09/10	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	2-2	3-2	14	2	W
03/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
26/09	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
20/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
13/09	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	10	5	W

Kagoshima United

WWDWLWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
31/10	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
24/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
21/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
17/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	2-0	4-2	5	0	W
11/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
04/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
26/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
19/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sagamihara vs Kagoshima United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kagoshima United win (46%). Probabilities: Sagamihara 28%, draw 26%, Kagoshima United 46%.

How many goals are expected in Sagamihara vs Kagoshima United?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Sagamihara 1.26 · Kagoshima United 1.68), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sagamihara vs Kagoshima United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.