Football · Japan J3-League · 08/11, 05:00
Prediction: Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi
Team pages: Roasso Kumamoto · Renofa Yamaguchi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Roasso Kumamoto1.16
Renofa Yamaguchi1.09
1X2
Roasso Kumamoto
Draw
Renofa Yamaguchi
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Roasso Kumamoto
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Renofa Yamaguchi
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Roasso Kumamoto
3–2–1
Renofa Yamaguchi
(6 last)
- Renofa Yamaguchi1-1Roasso Kumamoto
- Roasso Kumamoto2-1Renofa Yamaguchi
- Roasso Kumamoto0-1Renofa Yamaguchi
- Renofa Yamaguchi0-1Roasso Kumamoto
- Roasso Kumamoto1-1Renofa Yamaguchi
- Renofa Yamaguchi1-2Roasso Kumamoto
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roasso Kumamoto 1530 · Renofa Yamaguchi 1535
| Roasso Kumamoto | Draw | Renofa Yamaguchi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Roasso Kumamoto: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Roasso Kumamoto | Renofa Yamaguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.2 | 1.9 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Roasso Kumamoto 3–2–1 Renofa Yamaguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Renofa Yamaguchi | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Roasso Kumamoto |
| 08/02/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Roasso Kumamoto | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Renofa Yamaguchi |
| 02/11/25 Japan J2-League | Roasso Kumamoto | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Renofa Yamaguchi |
| 23/03/25 Japan J2-League | Renofa Yamaguchi | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Roasso Kumamoto |
| 20/10/24 Japan J2-League | Roasso Kumamoto | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Renofa Yamaguchi |
| 03/04/24 Japan J2-League | Renofa Yamaguchi | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Roasso Kumamoto |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Nara Club | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 21 | 29 |
| 3 | FC Gifu | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Sagamihara | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 28 |
| 5 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 27 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 26 |
| 7 | Ehime FC | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 26 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 9 | FC Ryukyu | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 23 |
| 10 | Parceiro Nagano | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 23 |
| 11 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 20 |
| 12 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 19 |
| 13 | Tochigi SC | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| 14 | Matsumoto Y FC | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| 15 | Reilac Shiga | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 17 |
| 16 | Fukushima Utd | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 15 |
| 17 | Gainare Tottori | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 29 | 15 |
| 18 | Thespa Gunma | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 29 | 13 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 27 | 11 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 31 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Roasso Kumamoto | Renofa Yamaguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Kagoshima United | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| FC Gifu | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Ehime FC | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Thespa Gunma | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Matsumoto Y FC | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Renofa Yamaguchi (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roasso Kumamoto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 31/10 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 21/10 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 11/10 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 02/10 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 12/09 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
Renofa Yamaguchi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 31/10 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 21/10 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 03/10 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 20/09 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Roasso Kumamoto win (37%). Probabilities: Roasso Kumamoto 37%, draw 29%, Renofa Yamaguchi 34%.
How many goals are expected in Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Roasso Kumamoto 1.16 · Renofa Yamaguchi 1.09), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.