Football · Japan J2-League · 17/10, 07:00
Prediction: Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija
Team pages: Sagan Tosu · Omiya Ardija
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Sagan Tosu1.32
Omiya Ardija1.36
1X2
Sagan Tosu
Draw
Omiya Ardija
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sagan Tosu
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Omiya Ardija
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sagan Tosu
2–3–1
Omiya Ardija
(6 last)
- Omiya Ardija0-0Sagan Tosu
- Sagan Tosu1-0Omiya Ardija
- Sagan Tosu3-0Omiya Ardija
- Omiya Ardija1-1Sagan Tosu
- Omiya Ardija1-1Sagan Tosu
- Sagan Tosu0-1Omiya Ardija
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Omiya Ardija (rating 1479 vs 1540).
- H2H favours Sagan Tosu: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sagan Tosu | Omiya Ardija | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6.8 | 1.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.6 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagan Tosu 2–3–1 Omiya Ardija
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/25 Japan J2-League | Omiya Ardija | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sagan Tosu |
| 15/03/25 Japan J2-League | Sagan Tosu | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Omiya Ardija |
| 19/08/17 Japan J-League | Sagan Tosu | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Omiya Ardija |
| 04/06/17 Japan J-League | Omiya Ardija | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sagan Tosu |
| 25/09/16 Japan J-League | Omiya Ardija | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sagan Tosu |
| 21/05/16 Japan J-League | Sagan Tosu | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Omiya Ardija |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Omiya Ardija | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | Kataller Toyama | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 17 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
| 7 | Oita | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 14 |
| 8 | Fujieda MYFC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 9 | Blaublitz Akita | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| 10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| 12 | Tokushima Vortis | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 13 |
| 13 | Montedio Yamagata | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| 14 | Iwaki FC | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 12 |
| 15 | Sagan Tosu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| 16 | Tochigi City | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 10 |
| 17 | FC Imabari | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 10 |
| 18 | Ventforet Kofu | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 10 |
| 19 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 10 |
| 20 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sagan Tosu | Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|
| Fujieda MYFC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Blaublitz Akita | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| FC Imabari | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Ventforet Kofu | 2-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Omiya Ardija (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sagan Tosu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 04/10 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2-League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 19/09 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Tochigi City Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Omiya Ardija
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 04/10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 26/09 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Oita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Albirex Niigata Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Omiya Ardija win (37%). Probabilities: Sagan Tosu 35%, draw 28%, Omiya Ardija 37%.
How many goals are expected in Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Sagan Tosu 1.32 · Omiya Ardija 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.