Prediction: Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi City
Team pages: Shonan Bellmare · Tochigi City
- Shonan Bellmare1-2Tochigi City
- Tochigi City1-3Shonan Bellmare
| Shonan Bellmare | Draw | Tochigi City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shonan Bellmare (rating 1507 vs 1447).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shonan Bellmare | Tochigi City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.5 | 1.5 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shonan Bellmare 1–0–1 Tochigi City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Shonan Bellmare | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Tochigi City |
| 28/02/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Tochigi City | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Shonan Bellmare |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 23 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 20 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Oita | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| 9 | Iwaki FC | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 16 |
| 10 | Fujieda MYFC | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 12 | Sagan Tosu | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 13 | Tokushima Vortis | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| 14 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 14 |
| 15 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 14 |
| 16 | Montedio Yamagata | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| 17 | Blaublitz Akita | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 12 |
| 19 | FC Imabari | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shonan Bellmare | Tochigi City |
|---|---|---|
| Kataller Toyama | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Fujieda MYFC | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| FC Imabari | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Vegalta Sendai | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Shonan Bellmare (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shonan Bellmare
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/10 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 11/10 | Albirex Niigata Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 26/09 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 12/09 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Omiya Ardija Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
Tochigi City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 17/10 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 10/10 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 03/10 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shonan Bellmare win (43%). Probabilities: Shonan Bellmare 43%, draw 27%, Tochigi City 30%.
How many goals are expected in Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi City?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Shonan Bellmare 1.57 · Tochigi City 1.27), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi City?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.