Football · Japan J2-League · 25/10, 06:00
Prediction: Albirex Niigata vs Vegalta Sendai
Team pages: Albirex Niigata · Vegalta Sendai
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
Albirex Niigata1.21
Vegalta Sendai1.86
1X2
Albirex Niigata
Draw
Vegalta Sendai
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Albirex Niigata
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Vegalta Sendai
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Albirex Niigata
2–2–2
Vegalta Sendai
(6 last)
- Albirex Niigata3-0Vegalta Sendai
- Vegalta Sendai0-0Albirex Niigata
- Albirex Niigata3-1Vegalta Sendai
- Vegalta Sendai1-1Albirex Niigata
- Albirex Niigata1-2Vegalta Sendai
- Vegalta Sendai2-1Albirex Niigata
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Albirex Niigata 1536 · Vegalta Sendai 1590
| Albirex Niigata | Draw | Vegalta Sendai | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 25% | 52% |
| Market | 23% | 27% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vegalta Sendai (rating 1536 vs 1590).
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Albirex Niigata | Vegalta Sendai | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.8 | 2.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3 | 2.7 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Albirex Niigata 2–2–2 Vegalta Sendai
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/22 Japan J2-League | Albirex Niigata | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Vegalta Sendai |
| 20/02/22 Japan J2-League | Vegalta Sendai | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Albirex Niigata |
| 18/04/18 Japan J-League Cup | Albirex Niigata | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Vegalta Sendai |
| 07/03/18 Japan J-League Cup | Vegalta Sendai | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Albirex Niigata |
| 19/08/17 Japan J-League | Albirex Niigata | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Vegalta Sendai |
| 28/05/17 Japan J-League | Vegalta Sendai | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Albirex Niigata |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 23 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 20 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Oita | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| 9 | Iwaki FC | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 16 |
| 10 | Fujieda MYFC | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 12 | Sagan Tosu | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 13 | Tokushima Vortis | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| 14 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 14 |
| 15 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 14 |
| 16 | Montedio Yamagata | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| 17 | Blaublitz Akita | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 12 |
| 19 | FC Imabari | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 10 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Albirex Niigata | Vegalta Sendai |
|---|---|---|
| Shonan Bellmare | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Tokushima Vortis | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Jubilo Iwata | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Montedio Yamagata | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Iwaki FC | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Vegalta Sendai (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Albirex Niigata
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Oita Japan J2-League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 11/10 | Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/09 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Vegalta Sendai
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 04/10 | Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 14 | 8 | W |
| 26/09 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Tochigi City Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
3-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Albirex Niigata vs Vegalta Sendai?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Vegalta Sendai win (51%). Probabilities: Albirex Niigata 23%, draw 26%, Vegalta Sendai 51%.
How many goals are expected in Albirex Niigata vs Vegalta Sendai?
The model expects 3.07 goals (Albirex Niigata 1.21 · Vegalta Sendai 1.86), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Albirex Niigata vs Vegalta Sendai?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.