Football · Republic of Ireland FAI Cup · 17/07, 20:45
Prediction: Dundalk vs St Mochtas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.16Total
Dundalk2.42
St Mochtas0.74
1X2
Dundalk
Draw
St Mochtas
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Dundalk
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
St Mochtas
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dundalk
1–1
St Mochtas
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dundalk 1479 · St Mochtas 1556
| Dundalk | Draw | St Mochtas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 18% | 9% |
| Market | 74% | 17% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Mochtas (rating 1479 vs 1556).
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dundalk | St Mochtas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 2.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.5 | 1.6 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundalk 1–0–1 St Mochtas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/24 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup | St Mochtas | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Dundalk |
| 27/08/21 Republic of Ireland FAI Cup | Dundalk | 5-1 HT 1-1 | St Mochtas |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dundalk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 26/06 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/06 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/05 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 22/05 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 15/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
St Mochtas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Kilbarrack Utd Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 03/06 | Finglas United Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 29/05 | Killester Donnycarney FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 26/05 | Bangor Celtic FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
2-4 | 6-5 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/05 | Tolka Rovers Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Wayside Celtic Republic of Ireland FAI Intermediate Cup |
3-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Usher Celtic Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 06/05 | Malahide Utd Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/04 | Ballymun United Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/04 | St Francis FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dundalk vs St Mochtas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dundalk win (74%). Probabilities: Dundalk 74%, draw 17%, St Mochtas 9%.
How many goals are expected in Dundalk vs St Mochtas?
The model expects 3.16 goals (Dundalk 2.42 · St Mochtas 0.74), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Mochtas?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.