Football · Republic of Ireland FAI Cup · 17/07, 20:45
Prediction: Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.68Total
Finn Harps1.65
Bray Wanderers2.03
1X2
Finn Harps
Draw
Bray Wanderers
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Finn Harps
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Bray Wanderers
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Finn Harps
2–2–2
Bray Wanderers
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Finn Harps 1455 · Bray Wanderers 1576
| Finn Harps | Draw | Bray Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bray Wanderers (rating 1455 vs 1576).
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Finn Harps | Bray Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2 | 2.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.4 | 2.6 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Finn Harps 2–2–2 Bray Wanderers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Finn Harps | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Bray Wanderers |
| 06/04/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Bray Wanderers | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Finn Harps |
| 19/09/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Bray Wanderers | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Finn Harps |
| 15/08/25 Republic of Ireland FAI Cup | Finn Harps | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Bray Wanderers |
| 04/08/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Finn Harps | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Bray Wanderers |
| 30/05/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Bray Wanderers | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Finn Harps |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Finn Harps | Bray Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Treaty United FC | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Wexford FC | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Athlone Town | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| UCD | 0-5 L | 6-0 W |
| Cork City | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Longford Town | 2-2 D | 5-2 W |
| Kerry FC | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Bray Wanderers (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Finn Harps
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 26/06 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 12 | D |
| 19/06 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 12/06 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-3 | 0-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 08/05 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
Bray Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 6-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 03/07 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/06 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 5-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 12/06 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 29/05 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | Finglas United Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
4-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bray Wanderers win (45%). Probabilities: Finn Harps 30%, draw 24%, Bray Wanderers 45%.
How many goals are expected in Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers?
The model expects 3.68 goals (Finn Harps 1.65 · Bray Wanderers 2.03), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.