Football · Republic of Ireland FAI Cup · 17/07, 20:45
Prediction: Treaty United FC vs UCD
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
Treaty United FC1.09
UCD1.57
1X2
Treaty United FC
Draw
UCD
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Treaty United FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
UCD
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Treaty United FC
2–2–2
UCD
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Treaty United FC 1486 · UCD 1494
| Treaty United FC | Draw | UCD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Treaty United FC | UCD | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/0/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.9 | 2.2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Treaty United FC 2–2–2 UCD
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Treaty United FC | 0-3 HT 0-2 | UCD |
| 27/02/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | UCD | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Treaty United FC |
| 05/09/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Treaty United FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | UCD |
| 04/07/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | UCD | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Treaty United FC |
| 16/05/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Treaty United FC | 4-0 HT 1-0 | UCD |
| 21/03/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | UCD | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Treaty United FC |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Treaty United FC | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Finn Harps | 1-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Kerry FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Wexford FC | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Cork City | 0-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Bray Wanderers | 2-2 D | 0-6 L |
| Longford Town | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Cobh Ramblers | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Athlone Town | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: UCD (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Treaty United FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 03/07 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 26/06 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 29/05 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/05 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
UCD
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 0-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 26/06 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/06 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 29/05 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 15/05 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-4 | 3-4 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 08/05 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 04/05 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Treaty United FC vs UCD?
According to our model, the most likely result is an UCD win (47%). Probabilities: Treaty United FC 26%, draw 27%, UCD 47%.
How many goals are expected in Treaty United FC vs UCD?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Treaty United FC 1.09 · UCD 1.57), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Treaty United FC vs UCD?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.