Football · Republic of Ireland FAI Cup · 17/07, 20:45
Prediction: Drogheda United vs Lucan United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.49Total
Drogheda United2.74
Lucan United0.75
1X2
Drogheda United
Draw
Lucan United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Drogheda United
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Lucan United
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Drogheda United 1476 · Lucan United 1497
| Drogheda United | Draw | Lucan United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 78% | 15% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Drogheda United | Lucan United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 2.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.9 | 2.2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.6 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Drogheda United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 26/06 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/06 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 22/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 15/05 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Lucan United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06 | Tolka Rovers Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | St Francis FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
2-3 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 28/05 | Kilbarrack Utd Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 21/05 | Usher Celtic Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
4-1 | 6-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | UCC Republic of Ireland FAI Cup |
0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Malahide Utd Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | Killester Donnycarney FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 29/04 | Finglas United Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 14/04 | Montpelier FC Republic of Ireland FAI Intermediate Cup |
0-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Ballymun United Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Drogheda United vs Lucan United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Drogheda United win (78%). Probabilities: Drogheda United 78%, draw 15%, Lucan United 7%.
How many goals are expected in Drogheda United vs Lucan United?
The model expects 3.49 goals (Drogheda United 2.74 · Lucan United 0.75), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Lucan United?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.