Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 28/08, 20:00

Prediction: AZ Reserves vs Maastricht

Team pages: AZ Reserves · Maastricht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

AZ Reserves2

Maastricht1.22

1X2

54% 24% 22%

AZ Reserves Draw Maastricht

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AZ Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLWLWL

Maastricht 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLDDLWWW

Head-to-head

AZ Reserves 2–1–3 Maastricht (6 last)

AZ Reserves1-1Maastricht
Maastricht1-3AZ Reserves
Maastricht0-1AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves2-3Maastricht
AZ Reserves2-3Maastricht
Maastricht4-0AZ Reserves

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AZ Reserves (rating 1535 vs 1473).
H2H favours Maastricht: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AZ Reserves	Maastricht
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.9	1.2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.94

Under 3.51.84

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:28

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.72 → 1.72	Pinn 1.72
X	3.77 → 3.77	Pinn 3.77
2	4.43 → 4.43	Pinn 4.43

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:25 +3’	1.72	3.77	4.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ Reserves 2–1–3 Maastricht

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	1-1 HT 1-0	Maastricht
21/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	1-3 HT 1-1	AZ Reserves
14/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	0-1 HT 0-0	AZ Reserves
02/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	2-3 HT 1-2	Maastricht
03/05/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	2-3 HT 1-2	Maastricht
01/12/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	4-0 HT 2-0	AZ Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Emmen	3	3	0	0	10	5	9
2	Maastricht	3	3	0	0	6	3	9
3	Almere City FC	3	2	1	0	7	2	7
4	Heracles	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
5	Roda JC	3	2	0	1	3	2	6
6	NAC	3	2	0	1	5	5	6
7	FC Den Bosch	3	1	1	1	8	6	4
8	FC Dordrecht	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
9	Vitesse	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
10	VVV	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
11	PSV Reserves	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
12	FC Volendam	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
13	AZ Reserves	3	1	0	2	6	6	3
14	RKC	3	0	3	0	4	4	3
15	FC Eindhoven	3	1	0	2	5	8	3
16	Helmond Sport	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
17	De Graafschap	2	0	1	1	3	6	1
18	FC Utrecht Reserves	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
19	Top Oss	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
20	Ajax Reserves	3	0	0	3	7	11	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AZ Reserves	Maastricht
FC Emmen	1-3 L	1-2 L
FC Eindhoven	0-1 L	3-2 W
Willem II	0-3 L	0-5 L
Helmond Sport	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AZ Reserves

DWWLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-3	3	3	L
17/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	5-2	3	7	W
10/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
24/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	12	2	W
17/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	8	4	L
13/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
06/04	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-5	2	3	L
03/04	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
20/03	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-3	2	7	W
16/03	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	11	0	D

Maastricht

DLLLDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
14/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	2	1	W
09/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
24/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
17/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
10/04	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
06/04	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
03/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
22/03	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-5	1	4	L
16/03	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	3	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AZ Reserves vs Maastricht?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AZ Reserves win (54%). Probabilities: AZ Reserves 54%, draw 24%, Maastricht 22%.

How many goals are expected in AZ Reserves vs Maastricht?

The model expects 3.21 goals (AZ Reserves 2 · Maastricht 1.22), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AZ Reserves vs Maastricht?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.