Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 07/09, 20:00

Prediction: FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Eindhoven

Team pages: FC Utrecht Reserves · FC Eindhoven

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

FC Utrecht Reserves1.59

FC Eindhoven1.52

1X2

39% 26% 36%

FC Utrecht Reserves Draw FC Eindhoven

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Utrecht Reserves 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLLLLL

FC Eindhoven 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWWLLL

Head-to-head

FC Utrecht Reserves 2–4 FC Eindhoven (6 last)

FC Utrecht Reserves3-0FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven1-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Eindhoven1-2FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves0-4FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven3-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves2-5FC Eindhoven

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Utrecht Reserves 1427 · FC Eindhoven 1440

	FC Utrecht Reserves	Draw	FC Eindhoven
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Eindhoven: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Utrecht Reserves	FC Eindhoven
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	1.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.35▼	Bet365 2.35
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.81 ★
2	2.50 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.68

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +6’	2.40	3.60	2.50
09:52 +1’	2.35▼	3.60	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:50 +1’	2.51	3.79	2.48
10:46	2.50▼	3.81▲	2.48
09:52	2.32▼	3.81	2.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Utrecht Reserves 2–0–4 FC Eindhoven

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Eindhoven
08/08/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
23/02/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
09/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	0-4 HT 0-2	FC Eindhoven
11/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
15/12/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	2-5 HT 1-1	FC Eindhoven

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	4	4	0	0	16	7	12
2	Maastricht	4	4	0	0	8	4	12
3	Almere City FC	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
4	VVV	4	3	0	1	11	5	9
5	FC Emmen	4	3	0	1	10	9	9
6	PSV Reserves	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
7	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
8	Roda JC	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
9	NAC	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
10	FC Volendam	4	2	0	2	11	5	6
11	AZ Reserves	5	2	0	3	9	9	6
12	RKC	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
13	FC Den Bosch	4	1	1	2	9	10	4
14	FC Dordrecht	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
15	Ajax Reserves	5	1	1	3	11	14	4
16	Top Oss	4	1	0	3	3	7	3
17	FC Eindhoven	4	1	0	3	6	11	3
18	Helmond Sport	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
19	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	5	12	1
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	5	0	0	5	5	15	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Utrecht Reserves	FC Eindhoven
AZ Reserves	1-2 L	1-0 W
Heracles	1-6 L	1-3 L
Maastricht	1-2 L	2-3 L
FC Den Bosch	1-1 D	2-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Eindhoven (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Utrecht Reserves

LLWDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
24/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-5	1-6	2	1	L
17/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	3	3	L
09/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
24/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/04	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	10	5	D
17/04	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
13/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
06/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-3	4	1	L

FC Eindhoven

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
21/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	2-5	1	1	L
14/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-3	6	1	L
10/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
24/04	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
17/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	11	5	L
10/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	5	3	L
06/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
03/04	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
28/03	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Eindhoven?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Utrecht Reserves win (39%). Probabilities: FC Utrecht Reserves 39%, draw 26%, FC Eindhoven 36%.

How many goals are expected in FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Eindhoven?

The model expects 3.11 goals (FC Utrecht Reserves 1.59 · FC Eindhoven 1.52), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Eindhoven?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.