Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 07/09, 20:00

Prediction: PSV Reserves vs FC Den Bosch

Team pages: PSV Reserves · FC Den Bosch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

PSV Reserves1.79

FC Den Bosch1.38

1X2

46% 24% 29%

PSV Reserves Draw FC Den Bosch

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

PSV Reserves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWDD

FC Den Bosch 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

PSV Reserves 1–2–3 FC Den Bosch (6 last)

FC Den Bosch1-0PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves3-0FC Den Bosch
PSV Reserves2-4FC Den Bosch
FC Den Bosch1-1PSV Reserves
FC Den Bosch1-0PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves2-2FC Den Bosch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSV Reserves 1485 · FC Den Bosch 1458

	PSV Reserves	Draw	FC Den Bosch
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Den Bosch: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PSV Reserves	FC Den Bosch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.9	2.3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.80

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.95▲	Pinn 1.97
X	3.90 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.10 ★
2	3.40 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.14

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +5’	1.90	3.90	3.40
07:31 +4’	1.95▲	3.80▼	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:50 +1’	2.01	4.00	3.11
09:52	1.97▼	4.10▲	3.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PSV Reserves 1–2–3 FC Den Bosch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	1-0 HT 1-0	PSV Reserves
22/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Den Bosch
31/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	2-4 HT 1-3	FC Den Bosch
13/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	1-1 HT 1-1	PSV Reserves
13/07/24 Europe Friendlies	FC Den Bosch	1-0 HT 1-0	PSV Reserves
15/01/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Den Bosch

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	4	4	0	0	16	7	12
2	Maastricht	4	4	0	0	8	4	12
3	Almere City FC	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
4	VVV	4	3	0	1	11	5	9
5	FC Emmen	4	3	0	1	10	9	9
6	PSV Reserves	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
7	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
8	Roda JC	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
9	NAC	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
10	FC Volendam	4	2	0	2	11	5	6
11	AZ Reserves	5	2	0	3	9	9	6
12	RKC	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
13	FC Den Bosch	4	1	1	2	9	10	4
14	FC Dordrecht	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
15	Ajax Reserves	5	1	1	3	11	14	4
16	Top Oss	4	1	0	3	3	7	3
17	FC Eindhoven	4	1	0	3	6	11	3
18	Helmond Sport	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
19	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	5	12	1
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	5	0	0	5	5	15	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PSV Reserves	FC Den Bosch
Top Oss	1-0 W	2-4 L
Almere City FC	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PSV Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
14/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
10/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
24/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-4	9	3	L
17/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
13/04	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
06/04	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
03/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	8	3	L

FC Den Bosch

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-4	16	3	L
21/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	5-2	6	1	W
14/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	6	1	L
08/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
02/05	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-3	7	1	L
24/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
20/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
17/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-4	3	4	L
10/04	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
06/04	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSV Reserves vs FC Den Bosch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PSV Reserves win (46%). Probabilities: PSV Reserves 46%, draw 24%, FC Den Bosch 29%.

How many goals are expected in PSV Reserves vs FC Den Bosch?

The model expects 3.17 goals (PSV Reserves 1.79 · FC Den Bosch 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PSV Reserves vs FC Den Bosch?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.