Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 05/09, 16:30

Prediction: FC Dordrecht vs AZ Reserves

Team pages: FC Dordrecht · AZ Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

FC Dordrecht1.86

AZ Reserves1.56

1X2

44% 25% 32%

FC Dordrecht Draw AZ Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Dordrecht 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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AZ Reserves 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Dordrecht 1–3–2 AZ Reserves (6 last)

AZ Reserves1-2FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht1-1AZ Reserves
FC Dordrecht1-1AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves3-1FC Dordrecht
AZ Reserves5-1FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht0-0AZ Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Dordrecht 1459 · AZ Reserves 1491

	FC Dordrecht	Draw	AZ Reserves
Our model	44%	24%	32%
Market	44%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AZ Reserves: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Dordrecht	AZ Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +5’	2.10	3.70	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dordrecht 1–3–2 AZ Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/02/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Dordrecht
15/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	1-1 HT 1-1	AZ Reserves
17/01/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	1-1 HT 1-0	AZ Reserves
26/08/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	3-1 HT 0-0	FC Dordrecht
22/01/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	5-1 HT 3-0	FC Dordrecht
22/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	0-0 HT 0-0	AZ Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	4	4	0	0	16	7	12
2	Maastricht	4	4	0	0	8	4	12
3	Almere City FC	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
4	VVV	4	3	0	1	11	5	9
5	FC Emmen	4	3	0	1	10	9	9
6	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
7	Roda JC	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
8	PSV Reserves	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
8	NAC	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
10	FC Volendam	4	2	0	2	11	5	6
11	RKC	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
12	FC Den Bosch	4	1	1	2	9	10	4
13	FC Dordrecht	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
14	AZ Reserves	4	1	0	3	7	8	3
15	Ajax Reserves	4	1	0	3	10	13	3
16	Top Oss	4	1	0	3	3	7	3
17	FC Eindhoven	4	1	0	3	6	11	3
18	Helmond Sport	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
19	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	5	12	1
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	4	0	0	4	4	13	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Dordrecht	AZ Reserves
Roda JC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Willem II	1-2 L	0-3 L
Cambuur Leeuwarden	1-1 D	4-3 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AZ Reserves (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Dordrecht

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	1-6	3	4	L
21/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
14/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
07/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	8	7	W
24/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
17/04	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
12/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
06/04	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
03/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	9	3	L
20/03	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-3	9	5	L

AZ Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-3	3	3	L
17/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	5-2	3	7	W
10/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
24/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	12	2	W
17/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	8	4	L
13/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
06/04	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-5	2	3	L
03/04	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
20/03	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-3	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Dordrecht vs AZ Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Dordrecht win (44%). Probabilities: FC Dordrecht 44%, draw 25%, AZ Reserves 32%.

How many goals are expected in FC Dordrecht vs AZ Reserves?

The model expects 3.42 goals (FC Dordrecht 1.86 · AZ Reserves 1.56), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Dordrecht vs AZ Reserves?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.