Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 28/08, 20:00

Prediction: Top Oss vs FC Utrecht Reserves

Team pages: Top Oss · FC Utrecht Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Top Oss1.56

FC Utrecht Reserves1.25

1X2

44% 27% 30%

Top Oss Draw FC Utrecht Reserves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Top Oss 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Utrecht Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Top Oss 3–3–0 FC Utrecht Reserves (6 last)

Top Oss3-1FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves0-0Top Oss
FC Utrecht Reserves1-1Top Oss
Top Oss1-1FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves0-3Top Oss
Top Oss2-0FC Utrecht Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Top Oss 1505 · FC Utrecht Reserves 1483

	Top Oss	Draw	FC Utrecht Reserves
Our model	43%	27%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Top Oss: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Top Oss	FC Utrecht Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +2’	2.10	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Top Oss 3–3–0 FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	3-1 HT 0-1	FC Utrecht Reserves
24/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	Top Oss
03/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	1-1 HT 0-1	Top Oss
30/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
26/02/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	0-3 HT 0-0	Top Oss
23/10/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Emmen	3	3	0	0	10	5	9
2	Maastricht	3	3	0	0	6	3	9
3	Almere City FC	3	2	1	0	7	2	7
4	Heracles	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
5	VVV	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
6	Roda JC	3	2	0	1	3	2	6
7	NAC	3	2	0	1	5	5	6
8	FC Den Bosch	3	1	1	1	8	6	4
9	FC Dordrecht	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
10	Vitesse	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
11	PSV Reserves	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
12	FC Volendam	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
13	AZ Reserves	3	1	0	2	6	6	3
14	RKC	3	0	3	0	4	4	3
15	FC Eindhoven	3	1	0	2	5	8	3
16	Helmond Sport	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
17	De Graafschap	3	0	1	2	4	8	1
18	FC Utrecht Reserves	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
19	Top Oss	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
20	Ajax Reserves	3	0	0	3	7	11	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Top Oss	FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Den Bosch	4-2 W	1-1 D
Ajax Reserves	2-1 W	2-0 W
FC Eindhoven	2-1 W	3-0 W
FC Dordrecht	2-2 D	3-1 W
Helmond Sport	1-1 D	1-0 W
Cambuur Leeuwarden	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Utrecht Reserves (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Top Oss

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/04	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
17/04	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	4-2	5	4	W
13/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
06/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	3-1	6	1	W
03/04	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
20/03	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
17/03	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	2	7	D
13/03	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-3	5	0	L
06/03	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
27/02	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-2	4	4	L

FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/04	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	10	5	D
17/04	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
13/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
06/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-3	4	1	L
20/03	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-1	2	5	W
17/03	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
13/03	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
08/03	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
02/03	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Top Oss vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Top Oss win (44%). Probabilities: Top Oss 44%, draw 27%, FC Utrecht Reserves 30%.

How many goals are expected in Top Oss vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Top Oss 1.56 · FC Utrecht Reserves 1.25), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Top Oss vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.