Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 31/08, 20:00

Prediction: AZ Reserves vs FC Utrecht Reserves

Team pages: AZ Reserves · FC Utrecht Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

AZ Reserves2.28

FC Utrecht Reserves1.29

1X2

59% 21% 20%

AZ Reserves Draw FC Utrecht Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

AZ Reserves 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Utrecht Reserves 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AZ Reserves 4–1–1 FC Utrecht Reserves (6 last)

AZ Reserves1-4FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves0-0AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves5-1FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves0-1AZ Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves1-2AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves1-0FC Utrecht Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AZ Reserves 1500 · FC Utrecht Reserves 1451

	AZ Reserves	Draw	FC Utrecht Reserves
Our model	59%	21%	20%
Market	59%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AZ Reserves (rating 1500 vs 1451).
H2H favours AZ Reserves: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AZ Reserves	FC Utrecht Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.33

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.60▲	Bet365 1.60
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.54 ★
2	5.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:39 +14’	1.53	4.33	5.00
02:20 +6’	1.60▲	4.33	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:29 +2’	1.54	4.67	4.77
23:52 +1’	1.57▲	4.55▼	4.62▼
02:19 +7’	1.58▲	4.52▼	4.57▼
03:52 +2’	1.59▲	4.50▼	4.52▼
12:20 +3’	1.58▼	4.54▲	4.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ Reserves 4–1–1 FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	1-4 HT 0-2	FC Utrecht Reserves
30/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	AZ Reserves
07/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	5-1 HT 1-1	FC Utrecht Reserves
22/10/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	0-1 HT 0-1	AZ Reserves
12/02/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	1-2 HT 0-1	AZ Reserves
14/08/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maastricht	4	4	0	0	8	4	12
2	Almere City FC	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
3	Heracles	3	3	0	0	13	6	9
4	FC Emmen	3	3	0	0	10	5	9
5	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
6	Roda JC	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
7	PSV Reserves	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
7	NAC	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
9	VVV	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
10	FC Volendam	4	2	0	2	11	5	6
11	RKC	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
12	FC Den Bosch	4	1	1	2	9	10	4
13	FC Dordrecht	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
14	FC Eindhoven	3	1	0	2	5	8	3
15	AZ Reserves	4	1	0	3	7	8	3
16	Ajax Reserves	4	1	0	3	10	13	3
17	Top Oss	4	1	0	3	3	7	3
18	Helmond Sport	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
19	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	5	12	1
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	4	0	0	4	4	13	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AZ Reserves	FC Utrecht Reserves
Maastricht	1-2 L	1-2 L
FC Eindhoven	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Utrecht Reserves (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AZ Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-3	3	3	L
17/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	5-2	3	7	W
10/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
24/04	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	12	2	W
17/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	8	4	L
13/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
06/04	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-5	2	3	L
03/04	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
20/03	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-3	2	7	W

FC Utrecht Reserves

WLLWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
24/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-5	1-6	2	1	L
17/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	3	3	L
09/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
24/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/04	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	10	5	D
17/04	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
13/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
06/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-3	4	1	L
20/03	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AZ Reserves vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AZ Reserves win (59%). Probabilities: AZ Reserves 59%, draw 21%, FC Utrecht Reserves 20%.

How many goals are expected in AZ Reserves vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

The model expects 3.57 goals (AZ Reserves 2.28 · FC Utrecht Reserves 1.29), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AZ Reserves vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.