Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 31/08, 20:00

Prediction: PSV Reserves vs Ajax Reserves

Team pages: PSV Reserves · Ajax Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

PSV Reserves2.34

Ajax Reserves1.29

1X2

60% 21% 19%

PSV Reserves Draw Ajax Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

PSV Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Ajax Reserves 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

PSV Reserves 0–3–3 Ajax Reserves (6 last)

PSV Reserves0-1Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves2-2PSV Reserves
Ajax Reserves4-0PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves2-2Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves3-0PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves2-2Ajax Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSV Reserves 1487 · Ajax Reserves 1423

	PSV Reserves	Draw	Ajax Reserves
Our model	60%	21%	19%
Market	60%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSV Reserves (rating 1487 vs 1423).
H2H favours Ajax Reserves: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PSV Reserves	Ajax Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.5 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.33

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 09:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57
X	4.50 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.67 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:44 +9’	1.50	4.50	5.00
00:49 +1’	1.57▲	4.33▼	4.50▼
02:23 +3’	1.60▲	4.33	5.00▲
09:31 +3’	1.57▼	4.33	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:29 +2’	1.53	4.67	4.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PSV Reserves 0–3–3 Ajax Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	0-1 HT 0-0	Ajax Reserves
17/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	2-2 HT 0-1	PSV Reserves
20/01/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	4-0 HT 2-0	PSV Reserves
12/08/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	2-2 HT 0-0	Ajax Reserves
15/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	3-0 HT 2-0	PSV Reserves
15/12/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	2-2 HT 1-0	Ajax Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maastricht	4	4	0	0	8	4	12
2	Almere City FC	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
3	Heracles	3	3	0	0	13	6	9
4	FC Emmen	3	3	0	0	10	5	9
5	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
6	Roda JC	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
7	PSV Reserves	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
7	NAC	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
9	VVV	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
10	FC Volendam	4	2	0	2	11	5	6
11	RKC	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
12	FC Den Bosch	4	1	1	2	9	10	4
13	FC Dordrecht	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
14	FC Eindhoven	3	1	0	2	5	8	3
15	AZ Reserves	4	1	0	3	7	8	3
16	Ajax Reserves	4	1	0	3	10	13	3
17	Top Oss	4	1	0	3	3	7	3
18	Helmond Sport	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
19	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	5	12	1
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	4	0	0	4	4	13	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PSV Reserves	Ajax Reserves
Top Oss	1-0 W	1-2 L
Almere City FC	1-3 L	0-2 L
Vitesse	0-2 L	1-6 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: PSV Reserves (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PSV Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
14/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
10/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
24/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-4	9	3	L
17/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
13/04	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
06/04	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
03/04	Willem II Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
20/03	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	5	1	L

Ajax Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
22/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
17/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-3	4-6	3	3	L
07/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
24/04	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
17/04	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
13/04	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
06/04	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-6	2	2	L
03/04	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-2	2-4	5	6	L
20/03	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSV Reserves vs Ajax Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PSV Reserves win (60%). Probabilities: PSV Reserves 60%, draw 21%, Ajax Reserves 19%.

How many goals are expected in PSV Reserves vs Ajax Reserves?

The model expects 3.63 goals (PSV Reserves 2.34 · Ajax Reserves 1.29), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in PSV Reserves vs Ajax Reserves?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.