Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 16/10, 20:00

Prediction: Helmond Sport vs NAC

Team pages: Helmond Sport · NAC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Helmond Sport1.83

NAC1.81

1X2

39% 24% 38%

Helmond Sport Draw NAC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Helmond Sport 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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NAC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Helmond Sport 2–2–2 NAC (6 last)

Helmond Sport1-0NAC
NAC1-1Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport2-2NAC
NAC1-0Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport4-0NAC
NAC1-0Helmond Sport

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NAC (rating 1455 vs 1507).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Helmond Sport	NAC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	2.6 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:45

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	5.41 → 5.41	Pinn 5.41
X	4.82 → 4.82	Pinn 4.82
2	1.47 → 1.47	Pinn 1.47

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:28 +197’	5.41	4.82	1.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Helmond Sport 2–2–2 NAC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/01/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	1-0 HT 0-0	NAC
27/10/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	1-1 HT 0-0	Helmond Sport
13/01/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	2-2 HT 1-1	NAC
05/08/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	1-0 HT 0-0	Helmond Sport
18/03/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	4-0 HT 2-0	NAC
27/11/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	1-0 HT 0-0	Helmond Sport

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31	12	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	22	7	22
3	VVV	10	7	0	3	26	14	21
4	FC Emmen	10	6	1	3	22	18	19
5	NAC	10	5	2	3	20	19	17
6	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
7	Maastricht	10	5	1	4	13	20	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22	17	15
9	RKC	10	3	5	2	19	15	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	15	15	14
11	AZ Reserves	10	4	1	5	22	18	13
12	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
13	Top Oss	10	4	0	6	15	15	12
14	FC Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	14	18	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	15	22	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	16	19	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Helmond Sport	NAC
Top Oss	1-3 L	2-1 W
Maastricht	0-2 L	1-0 W
VVV	4-2 W	0-2 L
Ajax Reserves	2-3 L	3-2 W
RKC	1-1 D	2-4 L
Roda JC	1-2 L	2-2 D
De Graafschap	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NAC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Helmond Sport

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
02/10	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	2	9	D
26/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
18/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
11/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
04/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-2	2	5	W
28/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-3	9	3	L
21/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
14/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
09/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-1	7	4	D

NAC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
03/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
26/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	4-2	13	3	W
20/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
11/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-3	9	5	L
04/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-4	4	5	L
28/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
22/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-2	6	6	W
14/08	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	10	7	L
07/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Helmond Sport vs NAC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Helmond Sport win (39%). Probabilities: Helmond Sport 39%, draw 24%, NAC 38%.

How many goals are expected in Helmond Sport vs NAC?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Helmond Sport 1.83 · NAC 1.81), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs NAC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.