Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: AZ Reserves vs Helmond Sport

Team pages: AZ Reserves · Helmond Sport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.09Total

AZ Reserves2.47

Helmond Sport1.62

1X2

56% 20% 24%

AZ Reserves Draw Helmond Sport

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

AZ Reserves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDWLD

Helmond Sport 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLDLL

Head-to-head

AZ Reserves 2–4 Helmond Sport (6 last)

AZ Reserves2-0Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport4-2AZ Reserves
Helmond Sport2-1AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves2-3Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport3-1AZ Reserves
AZ Reserves2-1Helmond Sport

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AZ Reserves (rating 1524 vs 1451).
H2H favours Helmond Sport: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AZ Reserves	Helmond Sport
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2.1	1.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	1.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.89

Under 3.51.89

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.64 → 1.64	Pinn 1.64
X	4.37 → 4.37	Pinn 4.37
2	4.27 → 4.27	Pinn 4.27

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:43 +172’	1.64	4.37	4.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ Reserves 2–0–4 Helmond Sport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	2-0 HT 2-0	Helmond Sport
17/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	4-2 HT 1-2	AZ Reserves
26/01/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	2-1 HT 2-0	AZ Reserves
18/10/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	2-3 HT 1-1	Helmond Sport
11/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport	3-1 HT 1-0	AZ Reserves
10/11/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	AZ Reserves	2-1 HT 2-1	Helmond Sport

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31	12	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	22	7	22
3	VVV	11	7	1	3	30	18	22
4	NAC	11	6	2	3	22	19	20
5	FC Emmen	10	6	1	3	22	18	19
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
7	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
8	Maastricht	10	5	1	4	13	20	16
9	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22	17	15
10	RKC	10	3	5	2	19	15	14
11	AZ Reserves	11	4	2	5	26	22	14
12	FC Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	16	19	14
13	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
14	Top Oss	11	4	0	7	16	17	12
15	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	15	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	16	21	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AZ Reserves	Helmond Sport
VVV	4-4 D	4-2 W
FC Den Bosch	0-1 L	1-2 L
PSV Reserves	1-1 D	3-1 W
Heracles	2-3 L	2-2 D
Maastricht	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Helmond Sport (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AZ Reserves

WLLWWLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	4-4	5	7	D
09/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	10	1	L
18/09	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-1	5	2	W
14/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
11/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-3	1	2	L
05/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-2	6-3	6	5	W
31/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
28/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-3	3	3	L
17/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	5-2	3	7	W

Helmond Sport

LDLWWLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
09/10	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
02/10	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	2	9	D
26/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
18/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
11/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
04/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-2	2	5	W
28/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-3	9	3	L
21/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
14/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AZ Reserves vs Helmond Sport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AZ Reserves win (56%). Probabilities: AZ Reserves 56%, draw 20%, Helmond Sport 24%.

How many goals are expected in AZ Reserves vs Helmond Sport?

The model expects 4.09 goals (AZ Reserves 2.47 · Helmond Sport 1.62), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AZ Reserves vs Helmond Sport?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.