Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: NAC vs Heracles

Team pages: NAC · Heracles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

NAC1.76

Heracles1.84

1X2

36% 24% 40%

NAC Draw Heracles

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NAC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWWDWW

Heracles 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWDW

Head-to-head

NAC 2–1–3 Heracles (6 last)

Heracles0-1NAC
NAC1-4Heracles
NAC2-1Heracles
NAC1-1Heracles
Heracles2-0NAC
NAC0-3Heracles

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heracles (rating 1520 vs 1588).
H2H favours Heracles: 3-1-2.
High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NAC	Heracles
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	3.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.1	4.9 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 31.99

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:17

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.27▲	Pinn 2.27
X	3.52 → 3.56▲	Pinn 3.56
2	2.87 → 2.89▲	Pinn 2.89

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:50 +20’	2.25	3.52	2.87
18:12 +66’	2.27▲	3.56▲	2.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NAC 2–1–3 Heracles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heracles	0-1 HT 0-0	NAC
29/10/25 Netherlands Cup	NAC	1-4 HT 0-2	Heracles
20/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	NAC	2-1 HT 0-1	Heracles
31/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	NAC	1-1 HT 1-0	Heracles
02/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heracles	2-0 HT 1-0	NAC
12/05/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	0-3 HT 0-0	Heracles

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	11	9	1	1	36	13	28
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	23	9	22
3	VVV	11	7	1	3	30	18	22
4	FC Emmen	11	7	1	3	24	19	22
5	NAC	11	6	2	3	22	19	20
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
7	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
8	FC Volendam	11	5	1	5	23	18	16
9	Maastricht	11	5	1	5	14	25	16
10	RKC	11	3	6	2	20	16	15
11	AZ Reserves	11	4	2	5	26	22	14
12	FC Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	16	19	14
13	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
14	Top Oss	11	4	0	7	16	17	12
15	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	15	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	16	21	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NAC	Heracles
Helmond Sport	2-0 W	2-2 D
Vitesse	2-2 D	2-0 W
FC Eindhoven	4-2 W	3-1 W
De Graafschap	2-1 W	5-0 W
FC Utrecht Reserves	2-3 L	6-1 W
RKC	2-4 L	3-0 W
VVV	0-2 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Heracles (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NAC

LWDLLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
09/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
03/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
26/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	4-2	13	3	W
20/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
11/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-3	9	5	L
04/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-4	4	5	L
28/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
22/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-2	6	6	W
14/08	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	10	7	L

Heracles

WWWWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-0	9	4	W
02/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	12	9	D
26/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-0	8	6	W
18/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	8	0	L
11/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	3-2	8	2	W
04/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	5-0	5	4	W
30/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-1	10	2	W
24/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	5-0	6-1	7	1	W
14/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-2	11	1	W
07/08	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-3	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NAC vs Heracles?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Heracles win (40%). Probabilities: NAC 36%, draw 24%, Heracles 40%.

How many goals are expected in NAC vs Heracles?

The model expects 3.6 goals (NAC 1.76 · Heracles 1.84), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NAC vs Heracles?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.