Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: Top Oss vs Ajax Reserves

Team pages: Top Oss · Ajax Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Top Oss1.89

Ajax Reserves1.4

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Top Oss Draw Ajax Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Top Oss 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWWL

Ajax Reserves 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWLLDL

Head-to-head

Top Oss 3–2–1 Ajax Reserves (6 last)

Ajax Reserves1-2Top Oss
Top Oss1-1Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves0-0Top Oss
Top Oss2-1Ajax Reserves
Top Oss2-1Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves1-0Top Oss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Top Oss 1492 · Ajax Reserves 1426

	Top Oss	Draw	Ajax Reserves
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Top Oss (rating 1492 vs 1426).
H2H favours Top Oss: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Top Oss	Ajax Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.3 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.9	1.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.90

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:51 +17’	1.91	3.90	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Top Oss 3–2–1 Ajax Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	1-2 HT 0-0	Top Oss
21/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	1-1 HT 1-0	Ajax Reserves
09/05/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	Top Oss
13/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	2-1 HT 0-0	Ajax Reserves
16/02/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	2-1 HT 2-0	Ajax Reserves
24/11/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	1-0 HT 1-0	Top Oss

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	11	9	1	1	36	13	28
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	23	9	22
3	VVV	11	7	1	3	30	18	22
4	FC Emmen	11	7	1	3	24	19	22
5	NAC	11	6	2	3	22	19	20
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
7	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
8	FC Volendam	11	5	1	5	23	18	16
9	Maastricht	11	5	1	5	14	25	16
10	RKC	11	3	6	2	20	16	15
11	AZ Reserves	11	4	2	5	26	22	14
12	FC Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	16	19	14
13	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
14	Top Oss	11	4	0	7	16	17	12
15	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	15	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	16	21	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Top Oss	Ajax Reserves
Helmond Sport	3-1 W	3-2 W
FC Emmen	0-1 L	4-6 L
FC Dordrecht	3-0 W	1-2 L
VVV	1-3 L	0-3 L
FC Utrecht Reserves	2-1 W	1-6 L
PSV Reserves	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Top Oss (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Top Oss

LLWLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-2	9	2	L
09/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
03/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-1	3	0	W
26/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
18/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	1	6	W
11/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
04/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-2	1	4	L
28/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
24/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
15/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-3	10	3	L

Ajax Reserves

LLLWDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
18/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-6	8	7	L
11/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
04/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
28/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
22/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
17/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-3	4-6	3	3	L
07/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Top Oss vs Ajax Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Top Oss win (48%). Probabilities: Top Oss 48%, draw 24%, Ajax Reserves 28%.

How many goals are expected in Top Oss vs Ajax Reserves?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Top Oss 1.89 · Ajax Reserves 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Top Oss vs Ajax Reserves?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.