Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 18/10, 16:45

Prediction: Maastricht vs Heracles

Team pages: Maastricht · Heracles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Maastricht1.19

Heracles2.49

1X2

15% 20% 65%

Maastricht Draw Heracles

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Maastricht 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLLWLL

Heracles 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWDW

Head-to-head

Maastricht 0–1–1 Heracles (2 last)

Maastricht0-2Heracles
Heracles2-2Maastricht

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maastricht 1492 · Heracles 1568

	Maastricht	Draw	Heracles
Our model	16%	19%	65%
Market	15%	20%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heracles (rating 1492 vs 1568).
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maastricht	Heracles
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	3.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.3	4.9 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.50

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.90

2 (-1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.07 ★
2	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:29 +6’	6.00	4.50	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:03 +205’	6.08	5.07	1.40
01:18 +3’	5.93▼	5.01▼	1.41▲
16:14 +20’	5.95▲	5.07▲	1.41▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maastricht 0–1–1 Heracles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Maastricht	0-2 HT 0-1	Heracles
29/08/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Heracles	2-2 HT 0-1	Maastricht

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31	12	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	22	7	22
3	VVV	10	7	0	3	26	14	21
4	FC Emmen	10	6	1	3	22	18	19
5	NAC	10	5	2	3	20	19	17
6	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
7	Maastricht	10	5	1	4	13	20	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22	17	15
9	RKC	10	3	5	2	19	15	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	15	15	14
11	AZ Reserves	10	4	1	5	22	18	13
12	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
13	Top Oss	10	4	0	6	15	15	12
14	FC Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	14	18	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	15	22	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	16	19	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maastricht	Heracles
Helmond Sport	2-0 W	2-2 D
RKC	1-6 L	3-0 W
Almere City FC	0-4 L	0-1 L
AZ Reserves	2-1 W	3-2 W
FC Eindhoven	3-2 W	3-1 W
FC Utrecht Reserves	2-1 W	6-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Heracles (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maastricht

WWWWDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
03/10	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-4	7	0	L
26/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
18/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-6	3	2	L
11/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-4	5	2	L
06/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
28/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
21/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
14/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	2	1	W
09/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	3	2	W

Heracles

WWWWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-0	9	4	W
02/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	12	9	D
26/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-0	8	6	W
18/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	8	0	L
11/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	3-2	8	2	W
04/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	5-0	5	4	W
30/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-1	10	2	W
24/08	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	5-0	6-1	7	1	W
14/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-2	11	1	W
07/08	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	4-3	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maastricht vs Heracles?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Heracles win (65%). Probabilities: Maastricht 15%, draw 20%, Heracles 65%.

How many goals are expected in Maastricht vs Heracles?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Maastricht 1.19 · Heracles 2.49), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maastricht vs Heracles?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.