Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 19/10, 20:00

Prediction: Ajax Reserves vs De Graafschap

Team pages: Ajax Reserves · De Graafschap

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Ajax Reserves1.79

De Graafschap1.96

1X2

35% 23% 42%

Ajax Reserves Draw De Graafschap

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax Reserves 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWLLDL

De Graafschap 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWLWDW

Head-to-head

Ajax Reserves 2–1–3 De Graafschap (6 last)

De Graafschap4-0Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves2-2De Graafschap
De Graafschap2-0Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves2-0De Graafschap
De Graafschap0-2Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves1-2De Graafschap

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ajax Reserves 1435 · De Graafschap 1466

	Ajax Reserves	Draw	De Graafschap
Our model	35%	23%	42%
Market	35%	23%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours De Graafschap: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax Reserves	De Graafschap
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.5	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.90

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.63▼	Bet365 2.63
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.31 ★
2	2.10 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.27

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +5’	2.90	3.90	2.10
03:17 +4’	2.63▼	3.90	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:36 +226’	2.53	4.31	2.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax Reserves 2–1–3 De Graafschap

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	4-0 HT 1-0	Ajax Reserves
03/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	2-2 HT 1-1	De Graafschap
19/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	2-0 HT 2-0	Ajax Reserves
09/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	2-0 HT 1-0	De Graafschap
11/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	0-2 HT 0-0	Ajax Reserves
21/08/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	1-2 HT 0-1	De Graafschap

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31	12	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	22	7	22
3	VVV	10	7	0	3	26	14	21
4	FC Emmen	10	6	1	3	22	18	19
5	NAC	10	5	2	3	20	19	17
6	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
7	Maastricht	10	5	1	4	13	20	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22	17	15
9	RKC	10	3	5	2	19	15	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	15	15	14
11	AZ Reserves	10	4	1	5	22	18	13
12	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
13	Top Oss	10	4	0	6	15	15	12
14	FC Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	14	18	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	15	22	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	16	19	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax Reserves	De Graafschap
VVV	0-3 L	1-2 L
FC Utrecht Reserves	1-6 L	2-1 W
Almere City FC	1-0 W	1-4 L
Helmond Sport	3-2 W	1-1 D
NAC	2-3 L	1-2 L
FC Emmen	4-6 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: De Graafschap (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax Reserves

LLLWDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
18/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-6	8	7	L
11/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
04/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
28/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
22/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
17/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-3	4-6	3	3	L
07/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	3	7	L

De Graafschap

DLLLLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
03/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
27/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
11/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
04/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-5	1	4	L
29/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-4	9	2	L
23/08	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
17/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-5	5	7	L
09/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax Reserves vs De Graafschap?

According to our model, the most likely result is an De Graafschap win (42%). Probabilities: Ajax Reserves 35%, draw 23%, De Graafschap 42%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax Reserves vs De Graafschap?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Ajax Reserves 1.79 · De Graafschap 1.96), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax Reserves vs De Graafschap?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.