Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 19/10, 20:00

Prediction: FC Utrecht Reserves vs Roda JC

Team pages: FC Utrecht Reserves · Roda JC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

FC Utrecht Reserves1.19

Roda JC1.7

1X2

26% 26% 48%

FC Utrecht Reserves Draw Roda JC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Utrecht Reserves 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDWWLL

Roda JC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWDWLD

Head-to-head

FC Utrecht Reserves 1–2–3 Roda JC (6 last)

FC Utrecht Reserves1-3Roda JC
Roda JC1-1FC Utrecht Reserves
Roda JC3-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves1-3Roda JC
Roda JC0-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves1-0Roda JC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Utrecht Reserves 1428 · Roda JC 1526

	FC Utrecht Reserves	Draw	Roda JC
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roda JC (rating 1428 vs 1526).
H2H favours Roda JC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Utrecht Reserves	Roda JC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.3	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.70

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.72 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.77
2	2.05 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +4’	3.20	3.60	2.05
02:24 +1’	3.50▲	3.70▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:44 +399’	3.72	3.77	1.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Utrecht Reserves 1–2–3 Roda JC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	1-3 HT 1-2	Roda JC
01/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
24/01/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
22/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	1-3 HT 1-0	Roda JC
26/01/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
01/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	1-0 HT 0-0	Roda JC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31	12	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	22	7	22
3	VVV	10	7	0	3	26	14	21
4	FC Emmen	10	6	1	3	22	18	19
5	NAC	10	5	2	3	20	19	17
6	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
7	Maastricht	10	5	1	4	13	20	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22	17	15
9	RKC	10	3	5	2	19	15	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	15	15	14
11	AZ Reserves	10	4	1	5	22	18	13
12	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
13	Top Oss	10	4	0	6	15	15	12
14	FC Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	14	18	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	15	22	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	16	19	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Utrecht Reserves	Roda JC
VVV	1-3 L	0-2 L
Ajax Reserves	6-1 W	0-0 D
NAC	3-2 W	2-2 D
Vitesse	1-3 L	1-0 W
Maastricht	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Utrecht Reserves

LLLLLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
18/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	5	2	L
14/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	6-1	5	7	W
11/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	3-2	1	5	W
07/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
31/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
24/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-5	1-6	2	1	L
17/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	3	3	L
09/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	2	L

Roda JC

LWWDDWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
04/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
26/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
18/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
12/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
06/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
21/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
14/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
07/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Utrecht Reserves vs Roda JC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Roda JC win (48%). Probabilities: FC Utrecht Reserves 26%, draw 26%, Roda JC 48%.

How many goals are expected in FC Utrecht Reserves vs Roda JC?

The model expects 2.89 goals (FC Utrecht Reserves 1.19 · Roda JC 1.7), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Utrecht Reserves vs Roda JC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.