Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 19/10, 20:00

Prediction: PSV Reserves vs FC Dordrecht

Team pages: PSV Reserves · FC Dordrecht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

PSV Reserves1.92

FC Dordrecht1.61

1X2

44% 24% 32%

PSV Reserves Draw FC Dordrecht

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

PSV Reserves 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWLDLD

FC Dordrecht 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLLWDL

Head-to-head

PSV Reserves 2–1–3 FC Dordrecht (6 last)

PSV Reserves1-1FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht1-2PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves1-2FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht2-0PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves0-1FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht1-4PSV Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSV Reserves 1492 · FC Dordrecht 1441

	PSV Reserves	Draw	FC Dordrecht
Our model	44%	24%	32%
Market	44%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSV Reserves (rating 1492 vs 1441).
H2H favours FC Dordrecht: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PSV Reserves	FC Dordrecht
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.3 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	1.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.80

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.87 ★
2	3.10 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +1’	2.00	3.80	3.10
02:20 +5’	2.10▲	3.80	2.88▼
03:26 +4’	2.15▲	3.80	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:46 +396’	2.15	3.80	2.95
16:58 +60’	2.13▼	3.84▲	2.97▲
00:33 +50’	2.11▼	3.87▲	2.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PSV Reserves 2–1–3 FC Dordrecht

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Dordrecht
23/08/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	1-2 HT 0-1	PSV Reserves
24/02/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Dordrecht
04/10/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	2-0 HT 1-0	PSV Reserves
26/02/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Dordrecht
10/11/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	1-4 HT 0-1	PSV Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31	12	25
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	23	9	22
3	VVV	11	7	1	3	30	18	22
4	FC Emmen	11	7	1	3	24	19	22
5	NAC	11	6	2	3	22	19	20
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
7	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
8	Maastricht	10	5	1	4	13	20	16
9	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22	17	15
10	RKC	10	3	5	2	19	15	14
11	AZ Reserves	11	4	2	5	26	22	14
12	FC Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	16	19	14
13	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
14	Top Oss	11	4	0	7	16	17	12
15	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	15	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	16	21	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PSV Reserves	FC Dordrecht
Roda JC	1-1 D	0-1 L
AZ Reserves	1-1 D	3-6 L
FC Den Bosch	3-1 W	1-1 D
Ajax Reserves	1-1 D	2-1 W
RKC	2-2 D	2-2 D
Top Oss	1-0 W	0-3 L
Almere City FC	1-3 L	3-2 W
FC Volendam	3-2 W	1-6 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: PSV Reserves (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PSV Reserves

WLWDDWLDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	4	0	D
19/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	3	0	L
14/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
11/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
07/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
31/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
14/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
10/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	7	1	W

FC Dordrecht

WDLLLLLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
03/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
25/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
18/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	6	6	L
11/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-3	3-6	2	5	L
28/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	1-6	3	4	L
21/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
14/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
07/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	8	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSV Reserves vs FC Dordrecht?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PSV Reserves win (44%). Probabilities: PSV Reserves 44%, draw 24%, FC Dordrecht 32%.

How many goals are expected in PSV Reserves vs FC Dordrecht?

The model expects 3.53 goals (PSV Reserves 1.92 · FC Dordrecht 1.61), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PSV Reserves vs FC Dordrecht?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.