Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 01/11, 14:30

Prediction: FC Emmen vs FC Den Bosch

Team pages: FC Emmen · FC Den Bosch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

FC Emmen2.06

FC Den Bosch1.42

1X2

51% 23% 26%

FC Emmen Draw FC Den Bosch

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Emmen 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWDWWW

FC Den Bosch 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLDWWD

Head-to-head

FC Emmen 3–1–2 FC Den Bosch (6 last)

FC Den Bosch1-1FC Emmen
FC Emmen3-1FC Den Bosch
FC Emmen0-3FC Den Bosch
FC Den Bosch1-0FC Emmen
FC Emmen1-0FC Den Bosch
FC Den Bosch1-2FC Emmen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Emmen 1542 · FC Den Bosch 1513

	FC Emmen	Draw	FC Den Bosch
Our model	51%	23%	26%
Market	52%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Emmen: 3-1-2.
High corners: 14.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Emmen	FC Den Bosch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 7.1	3.3 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.10

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.83 ★
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
2	4.10 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:33 +4’	1.67	4.20	4.10
11:21 +4’	1.80▲	4.10▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +514’	1.76	4.16	3.80
14:09 +11’	1.83▲	4.09▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Emmen 3–1–2 FC Den Bosch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Emmen
29/08/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	3-1 HT 0-1	FC Den Bosch
20/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Den Bosch
20/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Emmen
02/08/24 Europe Friendlies	FC Emmen	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Den Bosch
03/05/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Den Bosch	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Emmen

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	12	8	1	3	34	20	25
3	FC Emmen	12	8	1	3	26	19	25
4	Almere City FC	12	7	1	4	25	12	22
5	Roda JC	12	6	4	2	15	11	22
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	12	6	1	5	29	20	19
8	AZ Reserves	12	5	2	5	31	26	17
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	Maastricht	12	5	2	5	16	27	17
11	RKC	12	3	7	2	21	17	16
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	FC Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	18	21	15
14	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
15	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
16	De Graafschap	12	3	3	6	15	26	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	3	2	7	16	25	11
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	2	3	7	20	26	9
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Emmen	FC Den Bosch
Vitesse	2-0 W	1-4 L
FC Dordrecht	3-0 W	1-1 D
Top Oss	1-0 W	2-1 W
FC Eindhoven	1-3 L	5-2 W
De Graafschap	1-2 L	0-1 L
FC Volendam	5-3 W	0-2 L
AZ Reserves	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Emmen (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Emmen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
17/10	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-1	8	5	W
09/10	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
03/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
26/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	11	1	W
18/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
11/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	13	6	L
04/09	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	5-3	6	5	W
30/08	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-4	9	6	L
21/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-1	4	3	W

FC Den Bosch

WLLLWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-2	9	4	D
16/10	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
09/10	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
03/10	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
27/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
18/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
13/09	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
07/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-3	10	2	L
28/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-4	16	3	L
21/08	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	5-2	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Emmen vs FC Den Bosch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Emmen win (51%). Probabilities: FC Emmen 51%, draw 23%, FC Den Bosch 26%.

How many goals are expected in FC Emmen vs FC Den Bosch?

The model expects 3.48 goals (FC Emmen 2.06 · FC Den Bosch 1.42), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Emmen vs FC Den Bosch?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.