Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 30/10, 20:00

Prediction: FC Volendam vs De Graafschap

Team pages: FC Volendam · De Graafschap

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

FC Volendam2.24

De Graafschap1.58

1X2

52% 22% 26%

FC Volendam Draw De Graafschap

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Volendam 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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De Graafschap 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Volendam 4–2 De Graafschap (6 last)

FC Volendam2-1De Graafschap
De Graafschap4-3FC Volendam
FC Volendam3-1De Graafschap
De Graafschap0-3FC Volendam
FC Volendam1-4De Graafschap
De Graafschap2-5FC Volendam

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Volendam (rating 1520 vs 1475).
H2H favours FC Volendam: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Volendam	De Graafschap
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.7	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.6	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.89

Under 3.751.89

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:32

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.97 → 1.95▼	Pinn 1.95
X	4.01 → 4.11▲	Pinn 4.11
2	3.21 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.20

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:46 +126’	1.97	4.01	3.21
21:09 +83’	1.95▼	4.11▲	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Volendam 4–0–2 De Graafschap

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/12/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Volendam	2-1 HT 1-1	De Graafschap
11/08/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	4-3 HT 2-1	FC Volendam
08/04/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Volendam	3-1 HT 1-1	De Graafschap
10/09/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Volendam
24/01/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Volendam	1-4 HT 0-1	De Graafschap
07/11/20 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	2-5 HT 2-2	FC Volendam

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	12	8	1	3	34	20	25
3	FC Emmen	12	8	1	3	26	19	25
4	Almere City FC	12	7	1	4	25	12	22
5	Roda JC	12	6	4	2	15	11	22
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	12	6	1	5	29	20	19
8	AZ Reserves	12	5	2	5	31	26	17
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	Maastricht	12	5	2	5	16	27	17
11	RKC	12	3	7	2	21	17	16
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	FC Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	18	21	15
14	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
15	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
16	De Graafschap	12	3	3	6	15	26	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	3	2	7	16	25	11
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	2	3	7	20	26	9
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Volendam	De Graafschap
FC Utrecht Reserves	6-2 W	2-1 W
RKC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Almere City FC	0-1 L	1-4 L
VVV	3-2 W	1-2 L
FC Den Bosch	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Emmen	3-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Volendam (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Volendam

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	6-2	3	1	W
18/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
09/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
03/10	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
26/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	3-2	4	1	W
18/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-4	3	2	L
13/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
04/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	3-5	2	5	L
28/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	6-1	8	4	W
21/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	2	6	L

De Graafschap

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
19/10	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
09/10	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
03/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
27/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
11/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
04/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-5	1	4	L
29/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-4	9	2	L
23/08	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Volendam win (52%). Probabilities: FC Volendam 52%, draw 22%, De Graafschap 26%.

How many goals are expected in FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?

The model expects 3.82 goals (FC Volendam 2.24 · De Graafschap 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.