Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 02/11, 20:00

Prediction: Ajax Reserves vs Vitesse

Team pages: Ajax Reserves · Vitesse

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Ajax Reserves1.51

Vitesse1.88

1X2

30% 24% 46%

Ajax Reserves Draw Vitesse

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax Reserves 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Vitesse 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ajax Reserves 1–2–1 Vitesse (4 last)

Vitesse6-1Ajax Reserves
Ajax Reserves2-0Vitesse
Ajax Reserves1-1Vitesse
Vitesse2-2Ajax Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ajax Reserves 1477 · Vitesse 1511

	Ajax Reserves	Draw	Vitesse
Our model	30%	24%	46%
Market	31%	24%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax Reserves	Vitesse
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5.2	2.7 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.80 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.12 ★
2	2.05 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.04

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +5’	3.00	3.80	2.05
11:28 +2’	3.00	3.90▲	2.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +20’	3.00	4.12	2.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax Reserves 1–2–1 Vitesse

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Vitesse	6-1 HT 2-0	Ajax Reserves
01/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	2-0 HT 1-0	Vitesse
14/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Ajax Reserves	1-1 HT 1-0	Vitesse
21/09/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Vitesse	2-2 HT 1-2	Ajax Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	12	8	1	3	34	20	25
3	FC Emmen	12	8	1	3	26	19	25
4	Almere City FC	12	7	1	4	25	12	22
5	Roda JC	12	6	4	2	15	11	22
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	12	6	1	5	29	20	19
8	AZ Reserves	12	5	2	5	31	26	17
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	Maastricht	12	5	2	5	16	27	17
11	RKC	12	3	7	2	21	17	16
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	FC Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	18	21	15
14	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
15	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
16	De Graafschap	12	3	3	6	15	26	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	3	2	7	16	25	11
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	2	3	7	20	26	9
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax Reserves	Vitesse
Top Oss	3-3 D	2-1 W
Roda JC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Almere City FC	1-0 W	0-3 L
PSV Reserves	1-1 D	3-1 W
NAC	2-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vitesse (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-3	3	4	D
19/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
09/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
18/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	1-6	8	7	L
11/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
04/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
28/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
22/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	6	L

Vitesse

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	9	2	L
16/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
09/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
03/10	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
19/09	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	6	0	W
12/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
04/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
28/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	4-1	0	3	W
21/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax Reserves vs Vitesse?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vitesse win (46%). Probabilities: Ajax Reserves 30%, draw 24%, Vitesse 46%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax Reserves vs Vitesse?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Ajax Reserves 1.51 · Vitesse 1.88), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax Reserves vs Vitesse?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.