Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 02/11, 20:00

Prediction: FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Dordrecht

Team pages: FC Utrecht Reserves · FC Dordrecht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

FC Utrecht Reserves1.97

FC Dordrecht1.82

1X2

41% 24% 35%

FC Utrecht Reserves Draw FC Dordrecht

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Utrecht Reserves 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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FC Dordrecht 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Utrecht Reserves 3–2–1 FC Dordrecht (6 last)

FC Utrecht Reserves3-1FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht1-2FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves1-0FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht3-1FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves1-1FC Dordrecht
FC Dordrecht3-3FC Utrecht Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Utrecht Reserves 1453 · FC Dordrecht 1418

	FC Utrecht Reserves	Draw	FC Dordrecht
Our model	42%	23%	36%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Utrecht Reserves: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Utrecht Reserves	FC Dordrecht
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.6	1.2 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	1.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.36 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.63
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.72

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +4’	2.30	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:00 +28’	2.36	3.63	2.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Utrecht Reserves 3–2–1 FC Dordrecht

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	3-1 HT 2-0	FC Dordrecht
28/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
02/05/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Dordrecht
25/10/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	3-1 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
10/05/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Dordrecht
15/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Dordrecht	3-3 HT 0-2	FC Utrecht Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	12	8	1	3	34	20	25
3	FC Emmen	12	8	1	3	26	19	25
4	Almere City FC	12	7	1	4	25	12	22
5	Roda JC	12	6	4	2	15	11	22
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	12	6	1	5	29	20	19
8	AZ Reserves	12	5	2	5	31	26	17
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	Maastricht	12	5	2	5	16	27	17
11	RKC	12	3	7	2	21	17	16
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	FC Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	18	21	15
14	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
15	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
16	De Graafschap	12	3	3	6	15	26	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	3	2	7	16	25	11
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	2	3	7	20	26	9
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Utrecht Reserves	FC Dordrecht
FC Volendam	2-6 L	1-6 L
Roda JC	1-2 L	0-1 L
VVV	1-3 L	2-4 L
FC Eindhoven	0-0 D	1-2 L
AZ Reserves	1-2 L	3-6 L
Top Oss	1-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Utrecht Reserves (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	2-6	14	1	L
19/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
09/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
18/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	5	2	L
14/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	6-1	5	7	W
11/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	3-2	1	5	W
07/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
31/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
24/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-5	1-6	2	1	L

FC Dordrecht

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-3	2-4	9	5	L
19/10	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
09/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
03/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
25/09	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
18/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	6	6	L
11/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-3	3-6	2	5	L
28/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	1-6	3	4	L
21/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Dordrecht?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Utrecht Reserves win (41%). Probabilities: FC Utrecht Reserves 41%, draw 24%, FC Dordrecht 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Dordrecht?

The model expects 3.79 goals (FC Utrecht Reserves 1.97 · FC Dordrecht 1.82), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Dordrecht?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.