Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 02/11, 20:00

Prediction: PSV Reserves vs NAC

Team pages: PSV Reserves · NAC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

PSV Reserves1.24

NAC2.16

1X2

20% 22% 58%

PSV Reserves Draw NAC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

PSV Reserves 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDLDLW

NAC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWDWWD

Head-to-head

PSV Reserves 0–1–5 NAC (6 last)

NAC2-0PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves0-5NAC
PSV Reserves1-2NAC
NAC2-1PSV Reserves
NAC3-1PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves0-0NAC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSV Reserves 1492 · NAC 1554

	PSV Reserves	Draw	NAC
Our model	20%	22%	57%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NAC (rating 1492 vs 1554).
H2H favours NAC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PSV Reserves	NAC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.82
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.65 ★
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +16’	4.50	4.20	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:58 +29’	4.05	4.34	1.68
09:08 +10’	4.82▲	4.65▲	1.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PSV Reserves 0–1–5 NAC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	2-0 HT 1-0	PSV Reserves
04/12/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	0-5 HT 0-1	NAC
06/03/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	1-2 HT 1-0	NAC
06/01/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	2-1 HT 2-1	PSV Reserves
25/02/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	NAC	3-1 HT 1-1	PSV Reserves
22/11/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	NAC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37	14	29
2	VVV	12	8	1	3	34	20	25
3	FC Emmen	12	8	1	3	26	19	25
4	Almere City FC	12	7	1	4	25	12	22
5	Roda JC	12	6	4	2	15	11	22
6	NAC	12	6	3	3	23	20	21
7	FC Volendam	12	6	1	5	29	20	19
8	AZ Reserves	12	5	2	5	31	26	17
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
10	Maastricht	12	5	2	5	16	27	17
11	RKC	12	3	7	2	21	17	16
12	PSV Reserves	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
13	FC Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	18	21	15
14	Top Oss	12	4	1	7	19	20	13
15	Ajax Reserves	12	3	3	6	18	29	12
16	De Graafschap	12	3	3	6	15	26	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	3	2	7	16	25	11
18	FC Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16	31	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	2	3	7	20	26	9
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	12	2	1	9	19	31	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PSV Reserves	NAC
FC Eindhoven	2-1 W	4-2 W
Roda JC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Vitesse	1-3 L	2-2 D
Helmond Sport	1-3 L	2-0 W
Ajax Reserves	1-1 D	3-2 W
RKC	2-2 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NAC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PSV Reserves

WDDWLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
19/10	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
09/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	4	0	D
19/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	3	0	L
14/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
11/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
07/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
31/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W

NAC

WDLLWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
16/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
09/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
03/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
26/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	4-2	13	3	W
20/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
11/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-3	9	5	L
04/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-4	4	5	L
28/08	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
22/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-2	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSV Reserves vs NAC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NAC win (58%). Probabilities: PSV Reserves 20%, draw 22%, NAC 58%.

How many goals are expected in PSV Reserves vs NAC?

The model expects 3.4 goals (PSV Reserves 1.24 · NAC 2.16), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PSV Reserves vs NAC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.