Prediction: Marseille vs Toulouse
Team pages: Marseille · Toulouse
- Toulouse0-1Marseille
- Marseille2-2Toulouse
- Marseille2-2Toulouse
- Marseille3-2Toulouse
- Toulouse1-3Marseille
- Toulouse2-2Marseille
| Marseille | Draw | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Marseille: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marseille | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.9 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marseille 3–3–0 Toulouse
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Marseille |
| 04/03/26 France Cup | Marseille | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Toulouse |
| 29/11/25 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Toulouse |
| 06/04/25 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Toulouse |
| 31/08/24 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Marseille |
| 21/04/24 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Marseille |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 16 |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 14 |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 13 |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 12 |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 9 |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 8 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 7 |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 7 |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 5 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marseille | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 4-3 W | 3-2 W |
| Troyes | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Monaco | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Strasbourg | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Marseille (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marseille
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
2-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Troyes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
Toulouse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Troyes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 16/10 | Le Mans France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/09 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marseille vs Toulouse?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Marseille win (50%). Probabilities: Marseille 50%, draw 24%, Toulouse 25%.
How many goals are expected in Marseille vs Toulouse?
The model expects 3.22 goals (Marseille 1.91 · Toulouse 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Toulouse?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.