Prediction: Lens vs Marseille
- Marseille3-1Lens
- Lens2-1Marseille
- Marseille0-1Lens
- Lens1-3Marseille
- Marseille2-1Lens
- Lens1-0Marseille
| Lens | Draw | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marseille (rating 1484 vs 1530).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lens | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.3 | 2.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.2 | 2.4 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lens 3–0–3 Marseille
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Lens |
| 25/10/25 France Ligue 1 | Lens | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Marseille |
| 08/03/25 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lens |
| 23/11/24 France Ligue 1 | Lens | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Marseille |
| 28/04/24 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Lens |
| 12/11/23 France Ligue 1 | Lens | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Marseille |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Lille | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Lyon | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Rennes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 15 |
| 7 | Monaco | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 15 |
| 8 | Nice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 13 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| 11 | Brest | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 12 |
| 12 | Lorient | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 10 |
| 15 | Angers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 8 |
| 16 | Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lens | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Troyes | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Monaco | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Strasbourg | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lens (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 24/10 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 17/10 | Troyes France Ligue 1 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/10 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Le Mans France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 5-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
Marseille
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
2-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Troyes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lens vs Marseille?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lens win (42%). Probabilities: Lens 42%, draw 26%, Marseille 32%.
How many goals are expected in Lens vs Marseille?
The model expects 3.29 goals (Lens 1.77 · Marseille 1.52), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Marseille?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.