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Football · France Ligue 1 · 25/10, 15:00

Prediction: Monaco vs Lille

Team pages: Monaco · Lille

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Monaco1.65
Lille1.19
1X2
47% 27% 26%
Monaco Draw Lille
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Monaco 5-2-3 (W-D-L)
WLLWWWDWDL
Lille 5-3-2 (W-D-L)
DWLWDWWLWD
Head-to-head
Monaco 1–1–4 Lille (6 last)
  • Monaco0-1Lille
  • Lille1-0Monaco
  • Lille2-1Monaco
  • Monaco0-0Lille
  • Monaco1-0Lille
  • Lille2-0Monaco
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monaco 1573 · Lille 1504
MonacoDrawLille
Our model47%27%26%
Market46%28%26%
Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monaco (rating 1573 vs 1504).
  • H2H favours Lille: 4-1-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

MonacoLille
Goals for / against (FT)1.6 / 1.31.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)0.8 / 0.20.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)50/40/10%40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 4.61.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.4 / 03.4 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Monaco 1–1–4 Lille

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DateHomeScoreAway
10/05/26
France Ligue 1
Monaco0-1
HT 0-0
Lille
24/08/25
France Ligue 1
Lille1-0
HT 0-0
Monaco
22/02/25
France Ligue 1
Lille2-1
HT 2-1
Monaco
18/10/24
France Ligue 1
Monaco0-0
HT 0-0
Lille
24/04/24
France Ligue 1
Monaco1-0
HT 0-0
Lille
29/10/23
France Ligue 1
Lille2-0
HT 2-0
Monaco

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Lyon 7421 13514
2 PSG 7421 14914
3 Paris FC 7421 12714
4 Lille 7421 10514
5 Monaco 7421 10614
6 Rennes 7412 151413
7 Lorient 7322 7611
8 Lens 7313 141110
9 Marseille 7304 14109
10 Brest 7232 13109
11 Toulouse 7232 12119
12 Auxerre 7304 11179
13 Nice 7223 698
14 Strasbourg 7214 12157
15 Angers 7214 9157
16 Le Mans 7133 10156
17 Troyes 7115 5164
18 Le Havre 7025 5112

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentMonacoLille
Toulouse 2-2 D 1-0 W
PSG 2-1 W 2-2 D
Le Havre 1-0 W 1-0 W
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 0 L 2 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monaco

WLLWWWDWDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/10 Lorient
France Ligue 1
 0-0 0-1 46 L
10/10 Toulouse
France Ligue 1
 2-0 2-2 44 D
18/09 Lens
France Ligue 1
 1-0 2-1 22 W
12/09 Strasbourg
France Ligue 1
 0-0 1-1 72 D
04/09 PSG
France Ligue 1
 0-1 2-1 02 W
30/08 Marseille
France Ligue 1
 1-0 2-0 54 W
23/08 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
 1-0 1-0 45 W
17/05 Strasbourg
France Ligue 1
 3-1 4-5 63 L
10/05 Lille
France Ligue 1
 0-0 0-1 54 L
02/05 Metz
France Ligue 1
 0-0 2-1 92 W

Lille

DWLWDWWLWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
17/10 Brest
France Ligue 1
 0-1 1-1 53 D
10/10 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
 1-0 1-0 45 W
20/09 Nice
France Ligue 1
 0-1 1-2 74 L
13/09 Troyes
France Ligue 1
 1-0 2-0 21 W
03/09 Toulouse
France Ligue 1
 0-0 1-0 21 W
28/08 PSG
France Ligue 1
 1-0 2-2 03 D
23/08 Angers
France Ligue 1
 2-0 2-0 34 W
17/05 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
 0-1 0-2 45 L
10/05 Monaco
France Ligue 1
 0-0 1-0 24 W
03/05 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
 1-1 1-1 145 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monaco vs Lille?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monaco win (47%). Probabilities: Monaco 47%, draw 27%, Lille 26%.

How many goals are expected in Monaco vs Lille?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Monaco 1.65 · Lille 1.19), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Monaco vs Lille?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.