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Football · France Ligue 1 · 25/10, 20:45

Prediction: PSG vs Lyon

Team pages: PSG · Lyon

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.43Total
PSG2.37
Lyon1.06
1X2
65% 20% 15%
PSG Draw Lyon
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
PSG 6-2-2 (W-D-L)
DWWLDLWWWW
Lyon 5-2-3 (W-D-L)
WLLWDWDWLW
Head-to-head
PSG 5–1 Lyon (6 last)
  • PSG1-2Lyon
  • Lyon2-3PSG
  • Lyon2-3PSG
  • PSG3-1Lyon
  • Lyon1-2PSG
  • PSG4-1Lyon
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSG 1601 · Lyon 1526
PSGDrawLyon
Our model66%20%15%
Market65%20%15%
Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSG (rating 1601 vs 1526).
  • H2H favours PSG: 5-0-1.
  • High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

PSGLyon
Goals for / against (FT)1.8 / 1.11.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.30.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/40/20%40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2.6 / 6.13.1 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)2.3 / 0.13.9 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · PSG 5–0–1 Lyon

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DateHomeScoreAway
19/04/26
France Ligue 1
PSG1-2
HT 0-2
Lyon
09/11/25
France Ligue 1
Lyon2-3
HT 1-2
PSG
23/02/25
France Ligue 1
Lyon2-3
HT 0-0
PSG
15/12/24
France Ligue 1
PSG3-1
HT 2-1
Lyon
25/05/24
France Cup
Lyon1-2
HT 0-2
PSG
21/04/24
France Ligue 1
PSG4-1
HT 4-1
Lyon

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Lyon 7421 13514
2 PSG 7421 14914
3 Paris FC 7421 12714
4 Lille 7421 10514
5 Monaco 7421 10614
6 Rennes 7412 151413
7 Lorient 7322 7611
8 Lens 7313 141110
9 Marseille 7304 14109
10 Brest 7232 13109
11 Toulouse 7232 12119
12 Auxerre 7304 11179
13 Nice 7223 698
14 Strasbourg 7214 12157
15 Angers 7214 9157
16 Le Mans 7133 10156
17 Troyes 7115 5164
18 Le Havre 7025 5112

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentPSGLyon
Paris FC 1-2 L 0-0 D
Lens 2-0 W 1-2 L
Record vs common 1 W 0 D 1 L 0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PSG

DWWLDLWWWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
17/10 Strasbourg
France Ligue 1
 0-1 3-1 62 W
10/10 Le Mans
France Ligue 1
 1-0 3-1 44 W
20/09 Marseille
France Ligue 1
 0-0 2-1 75 W
13/09 Brest
France Ligue 1
 1-0 1-0 23 W
04/09 Monaco
France Ligue 1
 1-0 1-2 62 L
28/08 Lille
France Ligue 1
 0-1 2-2 53 D
17/05 Paris FC
France Ligue 1
 0-0 1-2 32 L
13/05 Lens
France Ligue 1
 1-0 2-0 31 W
10/05 Brest
France Ligue 1
 0-0 1-0 130 W
02/05 Lorient
France Ligue 1
 1-1 2-2 122 D

Lyon

WLLWDWDWLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/10 Nice
France Ligue 1
 2-1 2-1 15 W
09/10 Lens
France Ligue 1
 0-1 1-2 43 L
19/09 Rennes
France Ligue 1
 2-0 4-0 36 W
12/09 Paris FC
France Ligue 1
 0-0 0-0 33 D
04/09 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
 2-1 3-1 94 W
29/08 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
 0-0 1-1 52 D
22/08 Toulouse
France Ligue 1
 0-0 2-0 53 W
17/05 Lens
France Ligue 1
 0-3 0-4 205 L
10/05 Toulouse
France Ligue 1
 0-1 1-2 88 L
03/05 Rennes
France Ligue 1
 2-1 4-2 73 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSG vs Lyon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PSG win (65%). Probabilities: PSG 65%, draw 20%, Lyon 15%.

How many goals are expected in PSG vs Lyon?

The model expects 3.43 goals (PSG 2.37 · Lyon 1.06), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PSG vs Lyon?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.